I thought I'd take a look back at some of our pre-season previews, just to get a sense of perspective. For one thing, it can be amusing to see how our opinions of players have changed over the course of half a season. But more to the point, it's a chance to evaluate how well we analyse the players, their situations, and their prospects for the season. It also might be helpful to remind us of the longer view; in other words, don't forget what a player is capable of just because of a half-season of numbers. Somebody that's played way different than expectations may be a good trade candidate this time of year.
For now, I'll take a look back at my closer rankings, which I assembled on March 26. I'll go through the players one by one, giving their current season statistics, with my comments from then and some updated commentary on the current situation.
1. Billy Wagner - 41.2 IP, 3 W, 18 SV, 52 K, 2.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Then: The Mets should give a lot of save opportunities to Wagner, what with a strong offense, iffy pitching, and a ballpark more conducive to low-scoring, close games. If Wagner stays healthy, those opportunities will turn into beautiful saves, big K/IP and WHIP numbers.
Now: He hasn't gotten quite as many saves as I might have hoped, and the WHIP, though still fine, isn't up to his usual standards. The strikeouts are coming through as expected, though, and his prospects are fine for the second half of the season... as long as he stays healthy.
2. Joe Nathan - 39 IP, 6 W, 17 SV, 55 K, 1.62 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
Then: Similar to Wagner, except that the potential for close games is due to a weak offense and strong pitching. Nathan has shown what he’s made of, and it’s mostly strikeouts.
Now: Similar to Wagner, the saves haven't been there as much as owners might have hoped. The six wins do help to compensate, though, and wow, look at the rest of those numbers. Nathan is a beast. He definitely earns his top spot in these rankings.
3. Mariano Rivera - 50 IP, 4 W, 22 SV, 38 K, 1.98 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Then: No closer has been more consistent, and no closer is more secure in his job than Mo. He has the potential to lead the majors in saves, but he’s not going to help you as much in strikeouts as some other top closers.
Now: What I said then still holds now. He's not far off the lead in saves, and the rest of his numbers look great, even if the strikeouts aren't dominant. Just another season of Mariano doing his thing, so far. Another guy that earns his top spot.
4. Francisco Rodriguez - 38.1 IP, 0 W, 22 SV, 49 K, 2.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Then: K-Rod hasn’t been quite as consistent as the above closers, but he isn’t particularly worse than any of them. ERA and WHIP may be a teensy bit worse, but he is a sterling source of strikeouts.
Now: Only Wagner has a worse WHIP than K-Rod, so my above statement seems to hold true. All these guys on the list so far seem to be falling in line with expectations, which is nice. And nobody has reason to complain about getting any of these numbers. I notice Rodriguez hasn't gotten any wins, but that's not what you count on your closer for anyway, so we can overlook that.
5. Brad Lidge - 44 IP, 0 W, 21 SV, 62 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Then: Lidge is hurt a bit by his home ballpark, but he is right up there in the top class of closers. He may have the biggest strikeout potential of any of these guys.
Now: Well, the strikeouts and saves are there, but those other numbers are pretty ugly. And it's not the home park effect, as I had suggested, because they're as ugly away as they are at home. Lidge's numbers are obviously way off from the four guys ahead of him on this list, but don't forget about Lidge; there's a reason he was thought so well of coming into this season. Also, he doesn't appear to be in imminent danger of losing his closer's job. Still, this performance definitely stings.
6. Chad Cordero - 43 IP, 5 W, 13 SV, 44 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Then: His home park is a factory for close games, and more close games equals more save opportunities. Though not as utterly dominant as the closers ranked above him, Cordero is a good bet to be very friendly to your pitching staff’s numbers, and lock down a solid number of saves.
Now: His numbers across the board are not as good as I would have hoped them to be, especially the 13 saves. I wouldn't be surprised to see that go up somewhat in the second half, especially with an improved Nats offense, but Cordero doesn't look too close to a number six closer for this year. He's still far from the worst, though.
7. Derrick Turnbow - 38.2 IP, 4 W, 23 SV, 48 K, 5.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Then: This guy apparently came out of nowhere last year to be one of the top closers in baseball. Chances of repeated success are very good.
Now: This one is looking like a swing and a miss. Like Lidge, the saves and strikeouts are there, but those ratios are looking ugly. Unlike Lidge, Turnbow lacks the track record to give me the confidence that he can bounce back to a higher level of preformance. He doesn't look like he's about to be pulled from the closer's role just now, but he may be a real risk going forward.
8. Huston Street - 40.1 IP, 3 W, 19 SV, 39 K, 3.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Then: Street was the Rookie of the Year, and he is indeed a top closer option. He comes in ranked this low because the higher ranked closers have simply proven themselves better so far.
Now: Those numbers are solid, though not eye-popping. I guess I'll have to stand by my previous statement. Street doesn't appear to be an elite closer, but he's looking like a more and more solid option. Some more saves would be nice, but a strong second half from the A's could give Street a decent final total for the season.
9. Eric Gagne - 2 IP, 0 W, 1 SV, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Then: How can I, of all people, rank Gagne so low? He certainly has the potential to be a top-3 closer, but the injury concerns are just too much to ignore. He was halfway into Tommy John surgery last year before doctors made a course alteration. And this was all after he had a knee go “pop”. If Gagne holds up and pitches the whole year, he finishes better than this ranking. Don’t count on it, though.
Now: It turns out I ranked Gagne too high, as he lasted all of two innings. Hopefully you didn't count on him too much. His current replacement, Takashi Saito, is doing quite nicely, overtaking Danys Baez as Gagne's injury replacement. If anything, prospective owners have to be even more wary of Gagne in next season's draft, though he can't be ignored completely if he's expected to play.
10. Jason Isringhausen - 42.1 IP, 3 W, 26 SV, 42 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Then: A solid pitcher, and a good source of saves. He won’t hurt your pitching numbers, but he is a candidate to miss some time over the course of the season.
Now: Izzy has lived up to his billing, posting the second highest save total to date, along with solid strikeouts and ERA. that WHIP is a little scary, though. But, as long as he's on the mound and effective, his owners aren't complaining.
11. Trevor Hoffman - 36.2 IP, 0 W, 25 SV, 27 K, 1.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Then: Old but good. He’s not likely to stay as dominant as he gets older, but everything else about his situation works in his favor.
Now: Looks like I misunderestimated Mr. Hoffman. These are top closer numbers, once again, though without the big strikeout rate. There's really something to be said for dependability, and nobody beats Mariano and Hoffman in that regard as closers. As long as he's healthy, Hoffman is an asset.
12. B.J. Ryan - 45.2 IP, 1 W, 24 SV, 55 K, 0.99 ERA, 0.74 WHIP
Then: Ryan has been solid the last couple of years, and can put up some nice pitching numbers. Toronto hasn’t been great with the closers recently, though, so we’ll see.
Now: I've been consistently underrating Ryan the last few years because of some of his numbers I didn't like from earlier in his career. Well, I've been proven wrong without a doubt, and Ryan definitely appears to be a top-5 closer. There's really nothing not to like here, and my fears of earlier inconsistency cropping back up into his game can be tossed out the window at this point.
13. Eddie Guardado - 26.2 IP, 1 W, 8 SV, 25 K, 5.06 ERA, 1.57 WHIP
Then: Everyday Eddie is a solid, consistent pitcher. His health is an issue, but he’s still a good bet to post a solid season as a closer.
Now: Wrong again. I'm not the only guy that wants to trust him, as he is within a stone's throw of being the closer in Cincinnati; but it looks like he's just not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. He may still have some value going forward. Obviously, though, you shouldn't be counting on it, and it's little consolation to owners who thought as well of him as I did in these rankings. It's worth mentioning here that Guardado's replacement in Seattle, J.J. Putz, has been beastly as a replacement, putting up dominant numbers.
14. Keith Foulke - 32 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 23 K, 5.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Then: Foulke could be a top-10 closer, easily, if he is healthy this year. The smart money says he won’t be, though. Don’t put all your eggs in this basket.
Now: What a disappointment this guy was. Healthier than Gagne, his numbers are still worse. Hopefully you one-upped my advice and didn't put any of your eggs in this basket. If you snagged his replacement, Jonathan Papelbon, though, you are one lucky prick. Papelbon has been more or less the best closer in fantasy baseball so far this season.
15. Francisco Cordero - 44.2 IP, 6 W, 6 SV, 48 K, 4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Then: He’s a closer, and he can post fine pitching numbers, but, as closers go, he’s middle of the pack.
Now: Looks like I gave him too much credit. Actually, after a very rough start, his numbers are coming back to respectability. There are other closers on this list with lesser numbers than these, they just didn't lose their jobs. With Akinori Otsuka pitching splendidly as Cordero's replacement, though, it looks like Cordero may be out of the running for any further closer value this season. Take this as a lesson on why the higher talent closers truly are more valuable on draft day than they may prove to be over the course of a full season: they are the ones who you can be fairly certain will keep their jobs.
16. Jose Valverde - 30.2 IP, 2 W, 14 SV, 45 K, 8.22 ERA, 1.79 WHIP
Then: Valverde’s got good stuff, but he has injury concerns, and doesn’t have the job security of some other closers. Still, he’s a good bet to make his owners happy.
Now: Oops. The strikeout numbers are indicative of his stuff, but it looks like maybe this kid's arm is just plain shot. Jorge Julio has actually pitched very well as his replacement, which means you should probably trade him right now if he's a closer you're counting on. Arizona's home park is the number one park for hitting in this season, and Julio is prone to the massive pitching meltdown.
17. Tom Gordon - 38.1 IP, 3 W, 21 SV, 48 K, 2.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Then: Gordon isn’t likely to be as dominant as he used to be, plus he’s pitching in an offense-heavy ballpark, plus he’s always a big injury risk. Still, the potential is there for a good season.
Now: Wrong on all three counts. Gordon is definitely pitching on the high end of my possible expectations, and his owners are benefitting. These cautions may be worth keeping in mind for the second half, though, as confidence in Gordon probably shouldn't be quite as high as his numbers.
18. Armando Benitez - 23.2 IP, 4 W, 11 SV, 18 K, 1.90 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
Then: This guy doesn’t exactly inspire tons of confidence when he’s on the mound, but he’s pitching in a good ballpark, and he does have nice stuff. He’s still quite risky, though.
Now: It looks like Benitez is about right ranked here, though maybe he belongs a notch or two lower. My previous comments still hold true for the second half of the season. Who knows with this guy?
19. Mike Gonzalez - 39.2 IP, 3 W, 14 SV, 39 K, 2.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Then: Here’s a guy that could surprise this year. He’s got pretty good stuff, and the Pirates are never candidates to blow out their opponents, so the save opps should be there. Job security is definitely an issue, though.
Now: God, I'm such a genius. Not a bad showing for a first-year closer, so far. A few more saves and a few fewer baserunners would be nice, but this guy should be getting his owners pretty good value for where he was taken in the draft. Job security should remain on his owners' minds in the second half, though, with the Pirates not having much to play for.
20. Bob Wickman - 27 IP, 1 W, 14 SV, 16 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Then: I loved this guy as a rookie, he couldn’t lose. Now he’s getting old and fat. He’s been pretty consistent over the years, but I don’t see him as a very dependable option at this point.
Now: Wickman's number just get more and more mediocre. These are pretty weak numbers for a closer, although they aren't unstomachable. All that for 14 saves doesn't seem like such a great deal when all is said and done. We'll see if Cleveland sticks with him for the rest of the season.
21. Brian Fuentes - 35.1 IP, 2 W, 16 SV, 49 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Then: What a pleasant surprise this guy was last year. He should be able to hold down the closer's job for awhile, anyway, but he’s still a Rockies pitcher, and that’s never a good thing.
Now: Coors Field hasn't been quite the hitters' haven it has always been in the past, and Fuentes definitely benefits from this. He's certainly rock solid in his job security at this point, but he doesn't quite have top level closer numbers. Still, he belongs a good deal higher than number 21 for the rest of this season; he's a solid pitcher.
22. Todd Jones - 36 IP, 2 W, 24 SV, 13 K, 5.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Then: Pitchers become former closers for a reason. Jones was terrific last year, but I’m not fool enough to believe he’ll do it again.
Now: So far Jones is making me look good, although the saves are certainly there. He actually has started pitching better of late, and I was fool enough to trade for him earlier in the year, but he has to be seen as a serious risk as a fantasy closer, especially given the talent behind him in the bullpen.
23. Ryan Dempster - 40.2 IP, 1 W, 14 SV, 40 K, 4.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Then: Dempster is a big-time injury risk, but a move to the pen could help with that. He could be a decent closer on the year, but he could also suck and be out of a job by the end of April.
Now: Dempster has sort of come out in between all the possibilities I suggested. The numbers are pretty bad, but he only recently really became a candidate to lose his closing spot. He's remained healthy, which is nice, but his owners have to feel nervous about him headed into the second half, and 14 saves just isn't what you're hoping for from a full-time closer.
24. Bobby Jenks - 42.1 IP, 2 W, 26 SV, 50 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Then: Ozzie Guillen has already expressed his willingness to change up closers in mid-season, so that already puts Jenks' status in jeopardy. More risky, though, is his erratic control. He’s got some pretty good closer’s stuff, and should give some production, but there is a lot of risk involved, including the risk of some painful pitching numbers.
Now: Jenks has far outperformed this low ranking on my list. Partially out of job security, partially out of performance questions, I definitely missed the boat on this one. Of course, if his control does waver down the stretch, Ozzie Guillen is one of the only managers that wouldn't be afraid to replace him if he found a better fit. However, this doesn't look too likely right about now.
25. Mike MacDougal - 2 IP, 0 W, 1 SV, 1 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Then: Sadly, this is the best the Royals have as far as closer candidates are concerned. He’s hurt now, but he should come back and put up some scary numbers at some point. That’s scary-bad, not scary-good.
Now: Hey, look! It's Eric Gagne the Second! I didn't expect him to miss this much time, but as my previous comment suggests, that may have been doing his owners more of a favor than anything else. His prospects for the second half can't be considered too good, especially on that godawful Royals team.
26. Joe Borowski - 37 IP, 0 W, 18 SV, 32 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Then: Now we’re getting into the ranks of pitchers who are at a high risk of losing their job earlier rather than later. Borowski has had one good season as a closer, and has pitched excellently this spring. But he is