T-Lake's Matrix VII Draft Analysis Capsules
Written by Timberlake on March 28, 2007
Post-draft rosters (might want to open these in another tab/window so you can laugh along)
Timberlake's Matrix VII Draft Capsules
Owner: Father Time
Best Pick: Edgar Renteria (9th)
Worst Pick: Orlando Cabrera (12th)
Draft Analysis: Pretty solid squad overall. Love the pitching staff built around nice keepers in Webb and Halladay … and Cain and Pettitte will be good contributors. Some upside picks (Prior and Patterson) will fight to fill the 5th slot. Street and Cordero give him a rock-solid closer duo. There is a nice start to work with offensively (Soriano, Wells, V-Mart, Cano) but Fadda has more work to do here. He currently has to start a SS or 3B at his IF slot (Ed. Note: this means Es) and has the unproven Hermida slotted into his UTIL spot. Don’t love the offensive bench options either. While I like where he picked Cabrera, I thought there were better options for his team makeup at that spot on the board.
Predicted Finish: 6th
Owner: TiVo
Best Pick: Mark Teahen (11th)
Worst Pick: Mike Hampton (18th)
Draft Analysis: I actually buy TiVo’s position switch strategy throughout the draft. I think some of those picks could pay off for him. Teahen will be a very solid IF pick assuming he plays RF, and Lopez is a lot more valuable as a 2B as SS was pretty strong this year. However, despite having Thome’s production at UTIL I don’t like that he got painted into a corner and has to start two older catchers. Those guys certainly don’t have any upside, and with their age and position could break down at any time. He also has a fair amount of K’s despite having only 2 huge boppers in the lineup. The pitching staff is top heavy with Smoltz, Schmidt, and Nathan, but after that there are a lot of question marks. Harden and Burnett aren’t exactly pictures of stability, and there's not a lot of depth behind them.
Predicted Finish: 9th
Owner: Beagle
Best Pick: Juan Pierre (1st)
Worst Pick: Nick Swisher (5th)
Draft Analysis: Beagle has an intriguing team. Looking at the numbers he has put together I am more impressed than I was with each of his individual picks. He has a bevy of productive low-K guys in Nomar, Pierre, Vlad, etc. and those help to offset the power-heavy troika of Swisher, Cuddyer, and Hall (the only pick of the 3 I liked at the time). He also has arguably the best steal man in the game (Pierre) but a lack of steals after him. Shouldn’t have many errors. The starting pitching staff is solid if not super deep. Beags' top 4 starters should contribute all year with Zito’s reliability to balance Hamels’ star potential. Devastating closer setup with Saito, Ryan, and the outside possibility of a SP/RP. My final thought is that this might be a difficult team to trade with because of how it is set up, but Beagle has good talent and is creative enough to make it work.
Predicted Finish: 4th
Owner: Worm
Best Pick: Barry Bonds (6th)
Worst Pick: Mike Mussina (3rd)
Draft Analysis: Wow do I hate this team. Let’s get the good thing out of the way. I guess starting pitchers actually aren’t overrated because Worm spent the whole prime part of the draft making sure he had 5 very solid SP’s. Of course its probably not a good thing that the first one he took (Mussina) is no better than the last one he took (Young). Why would Worm worry about position scarcity though when he laughs in the face of category scarcity? To whit, he has no production … I mean none. Lowell, Polanco, Reed Johnson, Sean Casey? Sounds like a meh bench right? Nope. All 4 of those guys. Start. Worm will be making keeper trades with the waiver wire come the deadline. If Worm takes this collection of “talent” to another 7th place finish I'm gonna investigate him for hacking into Yahoo! Oh yeah, the closers suck too.
Predicted Finish: 12th
Owner: Doc Fury
Best Pick: Jose Contreras
Worst Pick: Pedro Martinez
Draft Analysis: Doc The Hick hasn’t set his lineup which is real helpful when I'm trying to look at his stats! His pitching is solidly above average. Above average closer duo in Jenks and Gordon. Above average starters led by an above average ace in Carlos Zambrano. Gerg has a ton of K’s and Errors but at least he has some power and speed as well. However, I don’t see much upward mobility on this team and think guys like Byrnes and Freddie Sanchez are prime candidates to plummet back to earth this year.
Predicted Finish: 10th
Owner: Ricky
Best Pick: Brad Lidge (7th)
Worst Pick: Josh Barfield (5th)
Draft Analysis: Damn, you do have a shiteload of K’s don’t you? Bet you wish you’d kept Adam Dunn instead of Howard. There is solid power throughout the lineup though and enough steals to stay competitive there. The offensive bench is gross. Carpenter and Myers are a good start to a staff and the K’s from Putz and Lidge along with the Papelbon wildcard give this staff a lot of upside. Overall, decent talent but some things could have been done better.
Predicted Finish: 5th
Owner: Bartenderman
Best Pick: Ryan Zimmerman
Worst Pick: Troy Glaus
Draft Analysis: I liked the Roberts pick to give you two big steal guys. And Pujols and Damon are great offensive pieces. However, neither Glaus nor Iwamura should be starting in anyone’s lineup right now. Zimmerman can slot in your 3b slot but then you still need to fill 2 starting positions with players you don’t have. As for the pitching staff … holyjesusfuckingchristmyeyeshurt. You managed to get 2 solid closers, throw a parade. Far and away the worst SP’s in the league. Peavy is dope, Lowe is a 4th or 5th starter. After that, you don’t have a single pitcher I would want in my top 5. Not to mention, you took 3 -- 3!!!!!!!! -- middle relievers. That was your plan? The old 'take middle relievers and hope they become closer trade bait' idea. Really? Really????? (Passes out)
Predicted Finish: 11th
Owner: Junky
Best Pick: Jeremy Bonderman (4)
Worst Pick: Coco Crisp (3)
Draft Analysis: Very solid team but lacking the Junky dominant keepers (other than Santana) that he always builds around. Probably because he had to trade them during the stretch run last year to try and win. Unfortunately he came up short, like 2nd place, as in the first loser, right behind me. Anyways, good solid production throughout the lineup, errors aren’t bad, K’s are average. Jermaine Dye must die. Make that happen Xach. Santana/Bonderman/Rivera is obviously a sick core to a pitching staff. However, I'm not nearly as enamored of Junky’s (trying to suck his own) Wang and Garland picks. Wins are a fickle stat and those guys could win 12 games and suck this year as easy as 20. In conclusion, a good team … just good enough to keep Junky’s title drought going.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
Owner: Ape
Best Pick: Frank Thomas (6)
Worst Pick: Curt Schilling (2)
Draft Analysis: Yuck, this team is stacked. Had far and away the best keepers and it shows. Went into the draft with all the steals he needed and was able to sit back and just draft 1 solid offensive player after another. Durham, Giambi, Thomas, Johjima will all produce without ridiculous K’s or E’s. The rest of us better hope a couple of those guys get real old real fast. Hawpe and Duncan are nothing amazing, but solid for where they were chosen. Ape also got two closers with stable jobs, and has a stable of capable starting pitchers with Matsuzaka the only big question mark because Ape needs him to be a true ace. Keepers set up with the talent and hard-to-fill categories, and Ape nailed the rest of his draft.
Predicted Finish: 1st
Owner: El
Best Pick: Matt Holliday (1)
Worst Pick: Nick Johnson (12th)
Draft Analysis: The offense should be solid but not spectacular. No huge bopper and no huge steal guy, but a lot of mid-range performers. If Derrek Lee can approach his 2005 season that will go a long way towards elevating this O. The closing duo is somewhat below average, but he’s got two and that’s what counts. The SP’s are talented but are mostly young or on crappy teams so El might struggle for wins. Should definitely outperform El’s woeful squad from last year, but doesn’t wow me as a contender.
Predicted Finish: 7th
Owner: Xach
Best Pick: Ryan Freel (5th)
Worst Pick: Eric Gagne (7th)
Draft Analysis: Really like this offense. Some steals, not a ton of errors, good production, and most of these players are solidly in their primes. However, there isn’t one sure thing on the pitching staff. I like Felix Hernandez where you got him, but with your youth and injury risks you needed to pick some kind of Barry Zito or something at some point, and, no, Kenny Rogers doesn’t count. Gagne and Jones could very realistically be dead and a middle reliever by the all-star break. Per usual, Xach goes likes to pile question marks on top of “value pick” question marks. I'm just gonna “play a hunch” and say that it won’t work out … again.
Predicted Finish: 8th
Owner: Timberlake
Best Pick: Russell Martin (12th)
Worst Pick: Julio Lugo (3rd)
Draft Analysis: I had 3 huge boppers as keepers but no steals or good positions filled so I bit the bullet and chased steals early. Patterson isn’t a good real life player, but hes good for roto … I'm not super pleased with the Lugo pick but I do like his chances to be productive this year. Nobody understood the Delmon Young pick, but I could see that RF was going to be the biggest shit-show position in the field this year and I feel good about getting a potential impact player there. I've got a balance of speed and power and probably the least K’s and E’s I've ever had coming out of draft. Pitching-wise, I have 1 dope closer and one guy with a stable job. I also have 5 starters in their prime who all threw over 180 innings last year. If Dontrelle and Beckett can bounce back from off years last year I will have some of the best pitching in the league.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
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