Center Fielder Review: September Edition
Written by Worm on September 07, 2006
Baseball is coming down the stretch, and most fantasy baseball leagues should be pretty well defined by now. In rotisserie formats, September is a tough time to make up ground, though it's been known to happen. However, this isn't what I've come here today to talk about. No, I'd rather talk about myself. More specifically, I'd like to take a look back at some more pre-season rankings, to see how they've shaped up over the course of the year. I already went over the closers around mid-season, so now it's time to take a look back at the center fielders. Again, I'll go through the players one by one, giving their current season statistics, with my comments from then and some updated commentary on the current situation.
1. Grady Sizemore - 137 G, 113 R, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 19 SB, .296 AVG
Then: Sizemore has everything you could want in a fantasy center fielder, and he’s young. Last year he was a solid 5-category producer, the only player on this list that can make that claim, and will probably be able to make that claim again at the end of this season.
Now: Hey, I was right. We'll see how the stolen bases hold up, but with discussion about moving Sizemore to the 3-hole, there's potential for those RBIs to go up. This guy's looking like a nice keeper, in any case.
2. Jim Edmonds - 104 G, 50 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 4 SB, .260 AVG
Then: Edmonds has the gift of raw power, which gives him instant fantasy value. He’s had a remarkable run of consistency in recent years, and has been a solid producer in every category except stolen bases. Age and injury are serious concerns for the upcoming year, however. Still, the upside is too big to ignore.
Now: Hey, I was wrong. Age and injury were indeed the major players here, as Edmonds' fantasy value has dropped through the floor. 18 home runs isn't bad, in baseball terms, but numbers like this really don't belong in the top 10.
3. Andruw Jones - 132 G, 84 R, 32 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .261 AVG
Then: Jones did some things last year, you may have heard. Leading the majors in home runs is, well, a good thing if the guy is on your fantasy team. He’s also just 28. He’s had trouble with inconsistency from year to year, and may have a label as a one-category fantasy performer, but something tells me we haven’t heard the last of Andruw Jones…
Now: Yeah, something tells me we haven't heard the last from him, but this season doesn't look quite as beautiful as last year's. Still, the production is very solid, in spite of the Edmonds-esque batting average. But, then again, it isn't far off from his .267 career average, so what the hey. Expect a, er, bounce-back year next season.
4. Johnny Damon - 130 G, 103 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 24 SB, .300 AVG
Then: The big free agent signing won’t have his hair slowing him down on the bases, so expect 70-100 steals from him this year. Yeah, just kidding. Still, he’s a solid player, and should be able to put up another typical Johnny Damon season. If anything, his runs scored should probably go up this year.
Now: Actually, many of his numbers have gone up, as Damon is having a career year. Just shows you how playing for the Red Sox holds a player back from realizing his true potential.
5. Carlos Beltran - 122 G, 113 R, 39 HR, 112 RBI, 16 SB, .286 AVG
Then: He’ll be ranked higher when he gets the hell off the Mets. I swear, somebody needs to check the water in Shea Stadium, something’s just not natural about that place. The potential is there for Beltran to be a monster, though. He’s not a big hitter for batting average, but can fill out the rest of your categories.
Now: Monster sighting. At number five, Beltran is too low on this list. He's even hitting for average this year. Fantasy owners should be concerned with the declining stolen base numbers, though, as it looks like he may not be dependable as a premier performer in that category any more.
6. Randy Winn - 135 G, 75 R, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 8 SB, .258 AVG
Then: What’s Winn doing so high on this list? Well, he hits at the top of the lineup, and does get on base, so he’ll be a big help in runs scored. His stolen bases are his biggest asset, but he won’t hurt you in the other categories. And he was the man for the Giants after being traded there last season. He is indeed a valuable fantasy player.
Now: Ignore everything you just read. Winn was a dud this year, and none of those numbers are helping.
7. Vernon Wells - 131 G, 80 R, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .314 AVG
Then: Wells has shown his potential, but recently he’s been high on promise, low on performance. Still, you can do lots worse for your fantasy team, and if he puts it together and blows up while he’s on your squad, you’ll look like a genius. Just don’t count on it.
Now: We've seen the brighter side of Wells this season, as he's definitely been more valuable than number seven on this list. Looks like Wells might be Carlos Delgado, Part II, what with his hot and cold seasons.
8. Juan Pierre - 138 G, 70 R, 2 HR, 34 RBI, 49 SB, .290 AVG
Then: Pierre is the premier stolen base threat on this list. It’s too bad he’s non-existent in two categories, homers and RBI, otherwise he’d be ranked higher than this. Still, Pierre retains excellent value as a potential top-5 base stealer.
Now: Pierre has recovered significantly from a poor start, to post a respectable fantasy season, thus far. The stolen bases are still there, but the runs are hurt by a virtually non-existent Cubs offense. It'll be interesting to see how the offense projects out at the start of next season, as Pierre still holds plenty of potential value.
9. Rocco Baldelli - 71 G, 40 R, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 9 SB, .300 AVG
Then: Baldelli is coming back after missing the entire 2005 season. He hopes to be ready for the start of the season, and we’ll see what kind of start he gets off to. He’s got fine potential, but he hasn’t really capitalized on it yet.
Now: Well, it took Baldelli longer to get back than expected, but, since he's been back, he's shown that he still has it. He should be an interesting player in drafts next year, though he still has to prove he's worth his label as a high-potential player.
10. Kenny Lofton - 107 G, 62 R, 2 HR, 31 RBI, 25 SB, .304 AVG
Then: The ancient one somehow still cracks the Top Ten on this list. His playing time has been down in recent years, but the production level, surprisingly, has remained very high. He’s still a solid base stealing threat, and could catch some people by surprise as the starting center fielder for the Dodgers. The big downside, of course, is age, and the threat of injury or a decline in performance.
Now: You can pretty much cut-and-paste that comment into Lofton's preview for next year. Sometimes Worm is so smart.
11. Brady Clark - 122 G, 48 R, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG
Then: Clark is a worthy fantasy starter, able to hit for average and steal some bags.
Now: Moving on to number 12...
12. Ken Griffey Jr. - 107 G, 61 R, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, .251 AVG
Then: Don’t get hurt out there, kid!
Now: He really should have taken my advice.
13. Torii Hunter - 122 G, 66 R, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 6 SB, .269 AVG
Then: Hunter was a mixed bag before getting hurt last season, so the risk is there. Nonetheless, upwardly mobile, this pick is.
Now: Not a terrible fantasy season, by any means, though the lack of stolen bases is an obvious disappointment. Hopefully those will bounce back somewhat next year, with another off-season for Hunter to rest his foot.
14. Brad Wilkerson - 95 G, 56 R, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 3 SB, .222 AVG
Then: The move to Texas should revive Wilkerson’s fantasy life. Er, value.
Now: Injuries killed Wilkerson's season. It now remains to be seen when he will be ready to return from surgery, and whether he'll be returning as a regular.
15. Mark Kotsay - 114 G, 52 R, 7 HR, 49 RBI, 5 SB, .272
Then: Pretty mediocre fantasy player… well look at that, right in the middle of this list!
Now: Injuries and a continued decline make Kotsay more mediocre than ever.
16. Coco Crisp - 95 G, 53 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 19 SB, .261 AVG
Then: We’ll see how playing in Beantown works for this breakfast cereal. Don’t get too overexcited, though.
Now: It hasn't worked out all that well. Injury didn't help, but Crisp has failed to fill Boston's high hopes.
17. Eric Byrnes - 119 G, 69 R, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 20 SB, .277 AVG
Then: If he stays healthy, maybe he can do some things.
Now: He did, and he has. Not bad fantasy production for a guy who may not have been drafted in many leagues.
18. Aaron Rowand - 109 G, 59 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB, .262 AVG
Then: He’d be a better player if he could hit.
Now: Admittedly, he hit that wall in center field quite impressively.
19. Ryan Church - 57 G, 16 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 6 SB, .255 AVG
Then: I’m running out of throwaway remarks.
Now: Throwaway remark for a throwaway season.
20. David DeJesus - 98 G, 69 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 4 SB, .298 AVG
Then: His value is in batting average. Other numbers would be better if he wasn’t on the worst team ever invented.
Now: What was true then is still true now. Missed time hasn't helped his value, either.
21. Mike Cameron - 117 G, 76 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 21 SB, .266 AVG
Then: Actually, I didn't write anything for the rest of these guys then, because I figured they were going to suck so much.
Now: Cameron has actually had one of his better years in awhile. Still, he hopefully shouldn't be anything more than a fantasy backup option.
22. Darin Erstad - 32 G, 8 R, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, .228 AVG
Now: 22 seems a little high for this guy. Erstad's season was destroyed by injuries, and he appears just about done as a fantasy player.
23. Cory Sullivan - 112 G, 44 R, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 9 SB, .275 AVG
Now: This season is looking somewhat similar to last season, neither of which are much to write home about.
24. Willy Taveras - 133 G, 74 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 29 SB, .277 AVG
Now: A long hitting streak salvaged what looked to be a disappointing season for the speedster.
25. Chris Duffy - 63 G, 31 R, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 16 SB, .212 AVG
Now: Those steals don't make up for the fact that Duffy wasn't major league ready this year.
26. Jeremy Reed - 67 G, 27 R, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .217 AVG
Now: Some ugly lines at the bottom of this list. Reed has also been hampered by injury.
27. Curtis Granderson - 137 G, 74 R, 13 HR, 56 RBI, 8 SB, .259 AVG
Now: Granderson belongs ahead of some of the other folks on this list, but these numbers are still far from scintillating.
28. Corey Patterson - 121 G, 66 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 40 SB, .276 AVG
Now: Patterson re-emerged as a viable fantasy option with a hot stretch for the Orioles, and those stolen bases entrench his value. Nonetheless, the rest of his line continues to indicate that he is no kind of dependable fantasy player.
29. Brian Anderson - 114 G, 43 R, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB, .227 AVG
Now: At least he got his batting average over .200.
30. Eric Reed - 31 G, 4 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3 SB, .114 AVG
Now: Last place? Oh, I think so.
As I did with the closers, I'll rank these same center fielders according to their current to-date rankings according to the Yahoo! fantasy baseball website, with my pre-season rankings in parenthesis.
1. Carlos Beltran (5)
2. Johnny Damon (4)
3. Vernon Wells (7)
4. Grady Sizemore (1)
5. Andruw Jones (3)
6. Corey Patterson (28)
7. Juan Pierre (8)
8. Eric Byrnes (17)
9. Mike Cameron (21)
10. Torii Hunter (13)
11. Willy Taveras (24)
12. Ken Griffey Jr. (12)
13. Kenny Lofton (10)
14. Curtis Granderson (27)
15. Randy Winn (6)
16. David DeJesus (20)
17. Jim Edmonds (2)
18. Aaron Rowand (18)
19. Coco Crisp (16)
20. Mark Kotsay (15)
21. Rocco Baldelli (9)
22. Brad Wilkerson (14)
23. Cory Sullivan (23)
24. Brady Clark (11)
25. Brian Anderson (29)
26. Ryan Church (19)
27. Chris Duffy (25)
28. Jeremy Reed (26)
29. Darin Erstad (22)
30. Eric Reed (30)
That's all, folks.
