TRADING PLACES: Second half trends
Written by Xach on June 28, 2006
This afternoon I completed a trade with Ape about which I have some mixed feelings. By the current numbers, I have to like the trade for me. However, a large part of making smart moves at mid-season has to do with the ability to separate the numbers so far from the numbers you project for the second half. That said, I thought I would kick off my first Rotogods blog post about trades with a discussion of the way I see some second half values . . .
First off, here are the players imvolved in my trade with Ape:
I'm giving him:
- Aramis Ramirez
- I'm a huge Aramis fan -- especially in our 7x5 league, which counts strikeouts as an offensive category -- and he is known as a second half player. That said, so far Juan Pierre has not been the table-setter that the Cubs would have hoped and his protection at the moment is Phil Nevin. I'm a little concerned that Aramis may be hurt, but if you're purely a numbers guy then you have got to like his chances for a big second half. In fact, I thought he was turning it around a few weeks ago and then he slumped again.
Matt Cain
- I was really high on Cain coming into the season and carried him all the way from draft day until now. I figured his K's alone were worth the low price of admission. Lucky for Cain and his fantasy owners, the nice K/9 rate is still very much intact. However, Cain walks 0.49 hitters per inning, which means that he pitches with runners on base far more often than seems healthy for fantasy purposes. Since the K's are still there (7.4/9), it seems Cain is still a good bet to achieve success as he matures. As I considered trading him this morning, I looked at his numbers from last year to see what the difference in the results could be. For starters, his walks are up some from last season. But even still, he walked a considerable percentage of batters he faced last season as well (19 walks in 46 innings), and considering the small sample size, it's possible that given another 40 innings, the walk rate would look identical to this season's. The real difference is that opposing batters only hit .151 against him last season. That's .077 points lower than what they're hitting him for in 2006. Since the K and BB rates from last year to this year are comparatively close to one another, the real question in determining Cain's value for the second half of 2006 is whether he'll make some adjustments or whether the league will continue to have him figured out. To me, that's a crap shoot; his stuff certainly doesn't seem to be a problem. Cain's fantasy future remains today the same intriguing mystery it was on April 1.
Ape's giving me:
- Brandon Webb
- Some say Webb has overachieved so far this season, but I actually like his prospects for the second half quite a bit. It's not that I don't agree with the skeptics; it's perfectly possible he's overachieved. But he pitches in a weak division, and a look at last season's splits show that he actually was better in the second half than in the first half. So while he may be overachieving, I still see him as a pitcher who should be able to put in a solid effort for 30+ starts a year. Even with a few bad starts, Webb's numbers are still better than they were last season, and all I need is a guy I can depend on. I've learned from my horrific pitching numbers so far this season that where starting pitching is concerned, dependability trumps talent. I mean shit, I'm sitting on Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Ben Sheets and Kelvim Escobar (among others) and I have the worst pitching numbers in the league. If you're looking for dependability down the stretch, Webb looks like a solid option to me. Even if he's not going to duplicate his first half numbers, he seems more likely than most to make a positive fantasy contribution.
Adrian Beltre
- Here we are about at the mid point of the season and guess who's scorching hot? Yep, Mr. I Mail In the First Three Months of Every Non-Contract Season. Gosh I hope he's good to go the rest of the way. But I certainly am not counting on it. For the second half, Beltre is a high risk, medium-high reward proposition. He could easily prove to be useless. However, history has shown that Beltre deserves to be on a fantasy roster the minute he gets hot. I do not value Beltre as highly as Aramis Ramirez for the second half (especially because our league counts errors and K's). However, 5x5 leaguers should keep in mind that Beltre's second hlaf value is certainly higher than the numbers he has put up so far indicate. He's a terrific plug-and-play option. The minute he gets cold, stick him on the bench.
So that's the extent of our trade. Here are some other players who have come up in various transactions of late who have interesting second half outlooks:
Miguel Tejada
- Miggy was recently involved in a huge blockbuster trade for Travis Hafner. After the trade, a couple of Rotogods commented that Tejada has a tendency to dissappear down the stretch. The suggestion here, of course, is that Miggy's owner was wise to sell high. From a few years back, I could have sworn Miggy was a second half player, so when I read what my fellow Rotogods were saying, I got a little confused and looked it up. Sure enough, Miggy dropped off big time in the second half last year, hitting .329 with 19 homers before the break and a measley .276 with 7 homers thereafter. Was this just another example of my memory being full of shit? Sure enough, i started looking at Miggy's other recent seasons and felt vindicated:
- 2004 - 1st half: .311, 15 homers
2004 - 2nd half: .311, 19 homers
2003 - 1st half: .245, 15 homers
2003 - 2nd half: .326, 12 homers
2002 - 1st half: .294, 15 homers
2002 - 2nd half: .325, 19 homers
Now I know it's true that where fantasy baseball is concerned, most people are once bitten, twice shy babe. But it seems to me that tejada is not known for falling off down the stretch. In fact, he's known for quite the opposite. Only the future will tell who's right on this for 2006, but history suggests that Tejada isn't exactly in the upper eschelon of sell-high candidates. Funny, sometimes we have short fantasy memories. Maybe you can find someone who has a short memory, show them Tejada's splits from last season and come away with a bit of a steal. Although trading Hafner might not be quite the way to go about it ;)
OK, that's all for now. I had a few other second half outlooks I thought I might address, but I'll live to write more another time. Right now I have to get away from the computer and find a toilet where I can dump the byproducts of my recently-digested chicken tikka masala.
