The Perfect Squad ... after 2 weeks.

Written by TiVo on April 20, 2006

I just learned one of two things. Either statistics two weeks into a fantasy baseball season are too unreliable to draw any conclusions from, or it doesn't much matter what format you play as long as the best players are on your team.

I'm in three leagues this season: A 12-team 7x5 roto league, a 30-team points league and a 16-team head-to-head league. I set out to determine the perfect lineup in each based on stats through Monday, or from the first two weeks of the season.

My goal was to use league-specific rankings or points totals the assemble to best team by position. So since the second-best player after Albert Pujols was also a first baseman, Detroit's Chris Shelton, I fit him on the perfect team at DH/Util, which bumped the player off to the third hottest start, Travis Hafner, off the team entirely in two of the leagues. While several catchers and third basemen are off to equally hot starts while most right fielders and second basemen are cold, no one brings the wood like (duh!) first basemen.

Of the 13 most valuable hitters out of the gate in the HooHaa Head-to-Head league (Pujols, Shelton, Hafner, Andruw Jones, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Vernon Wells, Jose Reyes, Craig Wilson, Carlos Delgado and Derrek Lee), nine qualify at first base, six exclusively. Dunn, Berkman and Wilson also play the outfield, while a 10th top hitter, Hafner, would be stuck at first if he was on a real-life NL team or if the Indians ever trotted the guy onto the frickin' field.

Still, in looking at the perfect rosters in all three league formats, I found nearly a consensus.

If your team looks like this, you're probably in first place:

M. Barrett

F. Lopez

Util

I'm sure there aren't too many people with that lineup, if for no other reason than Dunn is in left field and Berkman in right on technicalities. Counting Pujols and Shelton, there are four first basemen on the perfect team, or at least four dudes who hit like 'em.

While you'd be very much the man if you fielded that team, you'd also likely be doing so in a weak league. But surprisingly, having drafted that way is plausible. There are only two stone-cold first round talents on The Perfect Squad Through Two Weeks, and one of them (Pedro) had injury concerns heading into the draft. I doubt anyone would have Pujols-Jones-Berkman-Dunn go to the same team, but someone out there could actually own most this team, given that its second-best player is Chris "Who?" Shelton and the pitching staff is made up of guys who could have been drafted in middle and late rounds: Over-the-hill or injury-concern starters and a couple of young-prospect closers.

Here's how The Perfect Squad shook out in the Matrix, the Rotogods' 7x5 roto league. (it's a traditional 5x5 with errors and strikeouts factored in for batters):

Util

The only differences from the consensus lineup is that with an IF spot available in that league, Travis Hafner is able to sneak onto the team as DH.

With so many of the league's hot starts coming from first basemen, many of the aforementioned stud hitters, from Konerko to Craig Wilson, also probably find themselves on gobs of first-place fantasy teams. If you were to replace Dunn and Berkman with players that only qualify in the outfield, Vernon Wells, Jonny Gomes or Bobby Abreu have provided hot-enough starts.

At third, Atkins makes it in this league by a hair over Morgan Ensberg, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez. High picks like Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee and Carlos Beltran weren't the best at their positions through two weeks, but they were among the top 25 overall hitters.

Temporary Giants closer Tim Worrell came in behind Ray and Papelbon, but ahead of most starters in value.

The Perfect Squad in Virtual MLB, a league I wrote a bit about last season, is a little different. Points are weighted heavily toward wins and saves for pitchers (10 points each), while singles count for a point, doubles two, homers four and so on. Most everyday players can rack up solid weeks, but depth is key (and limits trading). A decent week score for a team is between 250-300, getting at least double digits from everyone in your five-pitcher, nine-hitter lineup.

Josh Willingham

Ryan Freel

Util

J. Beckett

The lineup differs at catcher, second and third, but like the others, bumps Hafner (78), Thome and Konerko for Shelton. Strangely, the points system but not the roto leagues, respects the base-stealing prowess of Freel.

Josh Willingham was the high-scoring catcher in the points format, but it was by a hair over four others: Ramon Hernandez, Kenji Johjima, Victor Martinez and Barrett. Those five represent both high draft picks and probably some that weren't taken at all.

As for the pitchers, a 30-point week is studly for a starter. Closers, if they finish several games while their team has a winning week, can eclipse 50, but it's rare. As you can see, our top 4 pitchers out of the gate were averaging 35 or more a week. Ray, like the guys just behind him on this list, Brad Penny and Tom Gordon (64.5) had a 50-point week and a 15-point week, approximately. Glavine also put up a solid 62.5 total, with a 32.5 and a 29.5.

The Perfect HooHaa head-to-head squad was similar to that of the Matrix, because the categories used to consider it aren't too different. Both use the basic five plus two. Ks and Es count against you in the Matrix, while HooHaa respects the hits (as well as average) and OPS.

David Wright

Util

Three of the top four pitchers (Ray, Papelbon, Schilling and Worrell) were relievers.

A third different third baseman, the heretofore unmentioned Wright, made the HooHaa team, probably due to his RBI tear in Week 2. The only other difference was the very hot Vernon Wells instead of Berkman.

The rosters are tight (no CI/MI, just 3 bench spots), so the FA wire is still lively in that 16-team affair. Which is a good thing. Because although having the perfect team through two weeks is an accomplishment, some of those guys (like Shelton, Barrett and Penny) are prime sell-high candidates. They might keep it up, but you might get stuck with high expectations for a player that goes cold.

Just the same, if you spent a high pick on Manny Ramirez, Chase Utley, Aramis Ramirez or Ichiro, well, you're probably in last place. So solly. But hold your ground. Hitters who have been good in the past usually come around. If these jokers aren't on your sqaud, see if you can buy low on them.

Reach TiVo at Tivo@rotogods.com. You can also peep his musical musings on Allthangsfunky.blogspot.com.

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-- Written by TiVo on April 20, 2006

Comments

(has Berkman and Dunn patrolling his outfield)

(is in first place)

Posted by: Worm at April 20, 2006 11:36 AM

(feels validated)

Posted by: Vo at April 20, 2006 03:08 PM