Closer Preview: The Closers

Written by Worm on March 26, 2006

Closers, along with stolen base specialists, are the most specialized players in fantasy baseball, and the gradient of their value is steep, what with there only being room for 30 closers in all of baseball. Furthermore, the potential uncertainty of their status makes their value even more volatile than the kings of the stolen base.

Still, fantasy players need closers to be able to compete, and if you pick intelligently, you can boost your entire pitching performance, while assuring yourself a top-notch finish in the saves category. Following the closer situations around baseball can be dicey, with so much fantasy value depending on the whim of the manager, but to be a competitive fantasy player you have to follow closer news, and be prepared to strike at a moment’s notice.

Before I get to my closer rankings, complete with blurbs, I’d like to share this link to MLB.com’s closer tracking page. It is a solid resource, right up there with any other fantasy resource on the subject. There are other places to follow news surrounding bullpen moves, but this is a good place to start.

Without further ado, here is how I foresee the currently listed closers producing in fantasy terms over the course of the season, in order of top performers to biggest dipshits.

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
The Mets should give a lot of save opportunities to Wagner, what with a strong offense, iffy pitching, and a ballpark more conducive to low-scoring, close games. If Wagner stays healthy, those opportunities will turn into beautiful saves, big K/IP and WHIP numbers.

2. Joe Nathan, Twins
Similar to Wagner, except that the potential for close games is due to a weak offense and strong pitching. Nathan has shown what he’s made of, and it’s mostly strikeouts.

3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
No closer has been more consistent, and no closer is more secure in his job than Mo. He has the potential to lead the majors in saves, but he’s not going to help you as much in strikeouts as some other top closers.

4. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
K-Rod hasn’t been quite as consistent as the above closers, but he isn’t particularly worse than any of them. ERA and WHIP may be a teensy bit worse, but he is a sterling source of strikeouts.

5. Brad Lidge, Astros
Lidge is hurt a bit by his home ballpark, but he is right up there in the top class of closers. He may have the biggest strikeout potential of any of these guys.

6. Chad Cordero, Nationals
His home park is a factory for close games, and more close games equals more save opportunities. Though not as utterly dominant as the closers ranked above him, Cordero is a good bet to be very friendly to your pitching staff’s numbers, and lock down a solid number of saves.

7. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
This guy apparently came out of nowhere last year to be one of the top closers in baseball. Chances of repeated success are very good.

8. Huston Street, A’s
Street was the Rookie of the Year, and he is indeed a top closer option. He comes in ranked this low because the higher ranked closers have simply proven themselves better so far.

9. Eric Gagne, Dodgers
How can I, of all people, rank Gagne so low? He certainly has the potential to be a top-3 closer, but the injury concerns are just too much to ignore. He was halfway into Tommy John surgery last year before doctors made a course alteration. And this was all after he had a knee go “pop”. If Gagne holds up and pitches the whole year, he finishes better than this ranking. Don’t count on it, though.

10. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
A solid pitcher, and a good source of saves. He won’t hurt your pitching numbers, but he is a candidate to miss some time over the course of the season.

11. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
Old but good. He’s not likely to stay as dominant as he gets older, but everything else about his situation works in his favor.

12. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
Ryan has been solid the last couple of years, and can put up some nice pitching numbers. Toronto hasn’t been great with the closers recently, though, so we’ll see.

13. Eddie Guardado, Mariners
Everyday Eddie is a solid, consistent pitcher. His health is an issue, but he’s still a good bet to post a solid season as a closer.

14. Keith Foulke, Red Sox
Foulke could be a top-10 closer, easily, if he is healthy this year. The smart money says he won’t be, though. Don’t put all your eggs in this basket.

15. Francisco Cordero, Rangers
He’s a closer, and he can post fine pitching numbers, but, as closers go, he’s middle of the pack.

16. Jose Valverde, Diamondbacks
Valverde’s got good stuff, but he has injury concerns, and doesn’t have the job security of some other closers. Still, he’s a good bet to make his owners happy.

17. Tom Gordon, Phillies
Gordon isn’t likely to be as dominant as he used to be, plus he’s pitching in an offense-heavy ballpark, plus he’s always a big injury risk. Still, the potential is there for a good season.

18. Armando Benitez, Giants
This guy doesn’t exactly inspire tons of confidence when he’s on the mound, but he’s pitching in a good ballpark, and he does have nice stuff. He’s still quite risky, though.

19. Mike Gonzalez, Pirates
Here’s a guy that could surprise this year. He’s got pretty good stuff, and the Pirates are never candidates to blow out their opponents, so the save opps should be there. Job security is definitely an issue, though.

20. Bob Wickman, Indians
I loved this guy as a rookie, he couldn’t lose. Now he’s getting old and fat. He’s been pretty consistent over the years, but I don’t see him as a very dependable option at this point.

21. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
What a pleasant surprise this guy was last year. He should be able to hold down the closer's job for awhile, anyway, but he’s still a Rockies pitcher, and that’s never a good thing.

22. Todd Jones, Tigers
Pitchers become former closers for a reason. Jones was terrific last year, but I’m not fool enough to believe he’ll do it again.

23. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
Dempster is a big-time injury risk, but a move to the pen could help with that. He could be a decent closer on the year, but he could also suck and be out of a job by the end of April.

24. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
Ozzie Guillen has already expressed his willingness to change up closers in mid-season, so that already puts Jenks' status in jeopardy. More risky, though, is his erratic control. He’s got some pretty good closer’s stuff, and should give some production, but there is a lot of risk involved, including the risk of some painful pitching numbers.

25. Mike MacDougal, Royals
Sadly, this is the best the Royals have as far as closer candidates are concerned. He’s hurt now, but he should come back and put up some scary numbers at some point. That’s scary-bad, not scary-good.

26. Joe Borowski, Marlins
Now we’re getting into the ranks of pitchers who are at a high risk of losing their job earlier rather than later. Borowski has had one good season as a closer, and has pitched excellently this spring. But he is not generally considered closer material, and carries an injury risk as well. Caveat emptor.

27. Chad Orvella, Devil Rays
Who know who will close for this team? Orvella seems like as good a bet as any, but it’s hard to predict big things for him at the moment.

28. David Weathers, Reds
Take my advice, don’t mess with this situation.

29. Chris Reitsma, Braves
He’s got some closer experience, and some decent stuff, but the job security is damn low, and the Braves always seem to have pitching options to spare. Maybe Reitsma belongs higher than this, but he is a big risk in any case.

30. Chris Ray, Orioles
Who? You finish rast in crosel lankings, so solly!

Okay, that’s all, bye.

-- Written by Worm on March 26, 2006