First base preview Part II
Written by Xach on March 08, 2006
On February 14, I published an in-depth analysis of the top four fantasy first basemen. I ranked them as follows:
For more detailed analysis of the top four, you can find my article here. Today, I'm moving on to present the rest of my first base rankings along with notes as to why each player has received his ranking.
The second tier
5. Lance Berkman: I'm sure to get some grief from the Todd Helton knob slobbers of the world, and perhaps some more grief from the Konerko for God in '06 campaign, but the way I see it, Berkman is the best of the second tier options at first base. Given the at-bats, Berkman's production has been consistently strong over the past five seasons. This is to say that we know what we can expect from a healthy Lance Berkman. His low water mark for a full season stands at about 100-25-90 with an average of .290. And those numbers, while possible, would all be disappointments. A healthy Lance Berkman is money in the bank and, in all liklihood, a 110-30-100-.300 return on your investment. No, I don't expect Lance Berkman will be the fifth best first baseman by the numbers at season's end. But among the second tier I perceive him as the option that carries the lowest risk.
6. Todd Helton: Todd Helton rings in at number six in my rankings for his phenomenal upside and eye-popping second half splits from 2005. We're looking at a possible 110-30-100-.350 beast here, folks. As you can see, that batting average would put him well ahead of Lance Berkman by season's end in fantasy terms. However, Helton slides to number six in my rankings because his numbers declined last season as he struggled with chronic back problems and a lack of lineup protection. Anyone drafting Helton needs to be aware of the risks. A repeat of his 92-20-79-.320 2005 season is entirely possible given the fact that Colorado failed to significantly improve the offensive parts around Helton and the fact that his back remains a concern. If I had to guess, I'd say we're looking at a 90-25-90-.330 campaign. But do you really want to have to guess? We Rotogods play a 7x5 roto format, which includes errors and strikeouts as hitter categories. Those of you playing standard 5x5 leagues will want to push Helton down to 8th in your rankings (below Konerko and Delgado), as his low strikeout totals do nothing to help justify the risks.
7. Paul Konerko: The seventh spot is really a toss-up in my mind between Konerko and Delgado. I'm giving the slight edge to Konerko simply because his situation remains stable. Another season in Chicago should yield another 40 homers and all the goodies we're used to seeing along with them. This means 90 runs, 100 RBI and a batting average hovering around .280. Depending on the makeup of your team (for example, keeper leaguers may already have solid average and production in their lineups) Konerko could be a better choice than Berkman. While his average is just about assured to be at least ten points lower than Berkman's and he is likely to produce fewer runs (though not by a lot), he's the smarter bet for pure power numbers (and we're really just talking about slugging/homers here).
8. Carlos Delgado: Ahh, good old Carlos. Seems like he's been a veritable fantasy comfort blanket for about a decade now. Remember when he hit 9 homers and had 24 RBI in a quarter of a season as catcher in '94? I forget what his splits were that year, but I seem to recall a month of complete ridiculousness. But I digress. . . We're looking at the 2006 Carlos Delgado here. Come hell or high water, Delgado has managed at least 30 home runs in each of the past nine seasons. He's broken the 40-homer mark three times within that span and even managed to keep the streak alive with 32 taters in 2004 despite missing 34 games. Delgado missed 18 games last season, mostly due to elbow problems, and was every bit the beast that fantasy owners have come to love and know to the tune of 81-33-115-.301. All that, while battlilng elbow tendonitis and hitting in one of baseball's least hitter-friendly parks. Delgado moves to Shea Stadium this season (also not a hitter's park) to join a much better lineup that includes Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Cliff Floyd and speed demon Jose Reyes, among others. And yet, Shea Stadium has had a mysterious way of crushing our fantasy dreams. Beltran was a supreme disappointment last season. Hey, anyone remember what happened to Robbie Alomar? No, I don't expect you to make your draft rankings based on superstitions, but the fact is that Delgado is already complaining of elbow soreness in March, sitting out a pre-season game this past Sunday, March 5th. Assuming the elbow holds up in a similar manner to last season, we should expect him to post numbers that are either the same as they were last year or better in every category. Such an occurrence would likely make him ("oh" face) better than Lance Berkman. But it should be pretty clear there's no one right choice among the second tier first basemen and someone has to be ranked as numero ocho. If you draft him as the 8th first baseman in your draft, you still might very well have a top-5 option on your hands.
The third tier
9. Richie Sexson: I don't care how many people are convinced that this spot belongs to Ryan Howard. They're all wrong. I'll cover Howard in a minute, so hold tight. So far as Sexson is concerned, he earned this spot with a healthy 2005. His health was the only real question coming into 2005, as he'd been averaging 39.3 homers per season in the the three years prior. Just for good measure, Richie went ahead and knocked out 39 round-trippers in 2005 too. Talk about staying true to form! Expect another 39 taters in 2006. And what the heck, throw in 100 runs and 120 RBI, you know, just for fun. Oh, and then expect a batting average in the .260's and 160 strikeouts. Yes, you can count on all of these things from Richie. And it's only the latter two that have him in the third tier.
10. Adam Dunn: You thought I was going to write about Ryan Howard now, didn't you? So so so solly! Chalk up another 100-40-100 season for Adam Dunn. Oh, and expect a batting average around .250 with 170 strikeouts. As you can see, while Dunn's homers compare nicely to Sexson's his peripherals are a half step behind. That said, Dunn is five years younger than Sexson and has no injury history to speak of, so it's reasonable to think the kid has some room to grow. Consider the 100-40-100 and .250 as numbers you can rely on and be pleasantly surprised if he improves on them. One could argue he should be above Sexson based on youth/upside, but I don't see it that way. The numbers are in Sexson's favor. If you're a risk taker (which I tend to be) or a Reds fan, go ahead and take a chance on Dunn ahead of Sexson. Just know that the smart money's all on Sexson.
The fourth tier -- welcome to the land of questions. . .
11. Ryan Howard: Sure, sure, sure, he has all the power in the world. So do Sexson and Dunn. Sure, sure, sure, he has 40-home run power. Guess what? Sexson and Dunn are already proven 40-home run hitters at the major league level. Howard is not. All we have from him so far is a little more than half a season. And he can't hit lefties . . . at all. Pitchers will have a chance to figure him out and he'll have a chance to adjust and to figure out how to hit a lefty. Until those things happen, I don't see how we can count on this guy for much of anything. Look at what happened to Morneau last season, of whom we had similar expectations. People in fantasy sports really need to stop jizzing all over half-season stat sheets turned in by young players and hold their cards a little closer to the vest. That's my opinion. Even at number 11, I rank Howard this high with hesitation. For more insight into my fantasy outlook on Ryan Howard coming into the 2006 season, you may look at my February 7 article comparing/contrasting his keeper value to that of Jorge Cantu. For the record, I do acknowledge his monstrous potential, so don't come screaming to me if he enjoys ridiculous sucess in 2006. I just don't see any way that it makes sense to inflate his pre-season ranking based purely on potential given all the questions.
12. Aubrey Huff: One disclaimer here: Aubrey Huff should be a little lower in the rankings for roto leaguers who use errors as a category, since Huff may return to third base this season. His return to the hot corner isn't etched in stone, but it's an option the team is seriously considering and he is working out at third for now. Fantasy owners who draft Huff will be hoping he can replicate his fine 2003 production. I'd say the chance of that is somewhere around 50/50. Huff has the tools to put it together, but for whatever reason he has battled inconsistency the past two seasons. Depending on your league format, Huff's multi-positional eligibility may be an asset worth taking advantage of as well.
13. Mike Sweeney: For anyone who counts strikeouts as a category, Sweeney claims the 13th spot in the rankings. If you play standard 5x5 roto, I'd consider sliding him two spots, behind Thome and Giambi. We all know the deal with Sweeney by now. Don't expect 500 at-bats and you'll be happy.
14. Jason Giambi: Giambi had a nice resurgence last season. We'lll see if he can keep things on the up and up. For now, expect similar production. Anything else, while possible, is gravy.
15. Jim Thome: He is this year what Giambi was the previous two seasons. We all know what a healthy Jim Thome can do. A healthy Jim Thome is a top-5 option at first base. His new ballpark and likely use as DH gives us all hope. For now he rings in at nunber 15 and has "major fucking bargain" tattooed across his forehead.
The rest
16. Chad Tracy: I'm not really in love with this guy as a fantasy option. I think his average will go down. But whatever, expect more of the same for 2006 I guess.
17. Prince Fielder: Hey, as long as we're down this far into bargain land, I say take the guy with upside. Who the hell knows how fast he will get a good read on major league pitching, but if he does it sooner than later he'll damn well be a better pick than Trad Chasy. Heck, he's almost as smart a pick as Ryan Howard.
18. Casey Kotchman: Nice second half splits and a fulltime job for 2006 tell me he won't be ranked this low next year. Le mikey muy mucho!
19. Justin Morneau: He's heading in the wrong direction, but I think all he needs is a bit of confidence. As recently as last June he had twice as much love from fantasy sports experts than Ryan Howard even has now.
20. Shea Hillenbrand: What you see is what you get.
21. Mike Jacobs: An intriguing option. We'll need to see a full season before we know much more.
22. Dan Johnson: An intriguing option. We'll need to see a full season before we know much more.
23. Chris Shelton: Probable platoon situation a concern.
24. Jay Gibbons: Another case of "what you see is whatyou get."
25. Brad Wilkerson: Let's see what Arlington can do for his numbers. Up-ticks in power and production are likely if he gets enough playing time. I wouldn't hold out too much hope for that batting average though . . . or the Credence.
26. Tony Clark: I guess he goes here. Just don't come crying to me if he sucks a lot . . .. . or if he's awesome. Who the fuck knows with this guy? My guess is: he sucks.
27. Connor Jackson: Talent worth keeping an eye on.
26. Adam Laroche: Unoffensive if you need to make up a couple starts or something.
Okay folks, that's as deep as my rankings go. If you're league's deeper than that, you're on your own with the rest of 'em. My apologies if I left out any players you're curious about. Feel free to approach us with any questions you may have by posting on our Fantasy Advice forum.
Also, keep your eyes peeled for position eligibility changes from Nomar Garciaparra and Travis Hafner, as both figure to see some time at first. Nomar should have elgibility very early in the season, although his value is higher at both shortstop and third base.
You're gettin' pretty good at this, nice!
Posted by: El at March 8, 2006 03:05 PM