First base preview Part I -- The top four

Written by Xach on February 14, 2006

Yes, it's true, you'd have to be pretty special not to come out of your draft with a decent first baseman. There are 13 first basemen with 40-home run seasons on their resumes. That said, 2005 was the year in which fantasy owners learned that even a first base stud can perform like a steaming pile of shit. Helton's first half was abysmal, Jim Thome aged 422 years in a single season, Aubrey Huff's average fell by a staggering .036 points; and instead of arriving, Justin Morneau reminded fantasy owners everywhere just how disappointing a top prospect can be. So while first base is fantasy's richest position, it's also important to be on your toes so you don't get burned.

I'll be breaking down the top 20-30 first basemen in several articles, as time allows. What follows is my treatment of the top four.

The clear-cut top four

1. Albert Pujols: Is it just me, or is there no reason for fantasy sites to even write anything meaningful about this guy? If there's something you need to know about why Pujols is the best first baseman coming into 2006, go look it up for yourself.

2. Derrek Lee: Every site I've looked at has Mark Teixeira ranked as the second best first baseman, with David Ortiz and Derrek Lee nipping at his heels. In my opinion, a strong case can be made for all three of them, but I'm bucking the trend by leaning toward Lee. First of all, his upward trend over the past several seasons shows steady improvement:

• Home runs each season since 2002: 27, 31, 32, 46
• RBI each season since 2002: 86, 92, 98, 107
• BA each season since 2002: .270, .271, .278, .335

While 2005 clearly represents Lee's great leap forward, the fact that he improved his numbers each year gives every indication that he is for real. In spite of my optimism, I'm not going to lie: Ortiz and Teixeira are better bets from a purely power standpoint (HR and RBI). But Lee hit for a much better average than either of them and brings another dimension to the fantasy playground; namely, he gets you a handful of steals. In 2005, only three first basemen got 15 steals and Lee was one of them. Over the past four seasons, Derrek lee has averaged 16.7 steals, which makes him far and away the only reliable source of steals at first base. For 5x5 owners, getting 15 steals from a top-four offensive first baseman is huge. For us 7x5 owners, it also helps that Lee is a gold glove-caliber defensive player and that he struck out 15 fewer times than either Teixeira or Ortiz.

3. Mark Teixeira: In my opinion, you can pretty much flip a coin between Ortiz and Teixeira from a fantasy perspective. Their numbers are to within a degree of identical, with Ortiz getting the edge by 7 runs, 4 homers and 4 RBI. Like Derrek Lee, both Ortiz and Teixeira have shown steady improvement over the past several seasons. Here's the catch though: Teixeira is only 26 years old. Having improved every year he's been in the Majors I suspect that if either player is likely to take yet another step forward it's probably Teixeira. Teixeira could very easily end up being the fantasy MVP among these first basemen.

4. David Ortiz: Now that I'm finally at the point of writing about David Ortiz, it feels completely retarded to rank him fourth at his position. Don't let the fact that I'm ranking him fourth mean a whole lot. As I've been saying, these guys are all freakin' amazing, and especially after Pujols it's hard to know which one of these guys will be the cream of the crop. Ortiz is fourth on my list because I expect nearly identical numbers to last season. But if you go look at those numbers you'll see they're completely ridiculous.

Coming soon to Rotogods.com: Lance Berkman rings in at number five. Find out why and catch the rest of my rankings as the first base preview continues with Part Deux.

-- Written by Xach on February 14, 2006