Ryan Howard vs. Jorge Cantu: a tale of two keepers

Written by Xach on February 07, 2006

If you're anything like we are here at Rotogods.com, you're already moving full steam ahead with preparations for the fantasy baseball season. Though most league drafts are still several weeks away, it's about time for most keeper-leaguers to start making some big decisions already. Generally speaking, I usually have most of my keepers for next year pretty well locked away in my mind by the time the trade deadline rolls around in August. However, this year I have a somewhat agonizing decision to make and it occurs to me that for many keeper-leaguers (especially for those with deep keeper rosters) preparing for baseball can be a bit overwhelming in February. Shit, my head's still wrapped around hockey and basketball at the moment. in the interest of wiping away the cobwebs and getting ready, I thought I would share my keeper diilemma (and perhaps some other keeper-related thoughts as well if I have time) with you our loyal reader.

Who to keep: Ryan Howard or Jorge Cantu?
I feel pretty confident that both Jorge Cantu and Ryan Howard have shown me enough goods to merit consideration for my final of four keeper spots. My problem is that they are both young and it's hard to know exactly what I can expect from either of them. If I were to go on hype alone, Howard would get the spot hands-down. But having employed Cantu last season I feel more comfortable with Cantu's production. He was Mr. Consistent. It seemed like he brought something to the table every day. He racked up 117 RBI in a very soft lineup and qualifies at both third base and second base, which I find harder to fill with premium talent than first base.

The case for Jorge Cantu
As I mentioned a moment ago, Cantu's merits as a keeper begin with his positional eligibity. In most leagues Cantu will qualify at two positions. Once upon a time, third base was a tough spot to fill. In recent years, however, it seems there is a relative glut of dependable talent at third. A Rod and Garciaparra now qualify there. Aramis Ramirez has established himself. Miguel Cabrera and David Wright are two of the top young hitters in the game. Shoot, at a glance there are 15 third basemen I'd happily throw into the mix if the shit hit the fan. So Cantu's value is moreso tied down to the fact that he qualifies at second.

Cantu just turned 24 a few days ago and in his first full major league season he lead all second basemen with 117 RBI. That's more than former fantasy sweethearts Jeff Kent (105) and Anfonzo Soriano (104). The fact that he plated those runs in a shitty lineup is telling to me as well. The fact that he only struck out 83 times is also encouraging; especially if your league counts strikeouts against you as our league does. In my book, any source of power that isn't tied to 100-plus strikeouts is a hot commodity. Cantu also posted 28 home runs, which ties him with Face Buttley for third best at the position behind Kent (36) and Soriano (29). His .286 batting average is just that: average. The 21 errors leave a bit to be desired, tying him with Soriano and rookie Rickee Weeks for worst at the position. Our league counts errors, so this is a definite negative where my considerations are concerned. I'm also not in love with the fact that he only scored 73 runs. That's not enough.

Near as I can see, Cantu's ability to score more runs is directly tied to the performance of Aubrey Huff and Delmon Young, neither of whom is certain to help Cantu's cause. However, both of them are capable of producing. I'm tempering my expectations and viewing 73 runs as a low water mark and I will be happily surprised if the numbers improve.

So far, we have the makings of a flawed option for rotisserie leagues. He's the best of the crop in two categories (HR, RBI), about average in two categories (AVG, K), and well below average in three categories (R, E, SB). My high hopes for Cantu are based on the fact that I believe he has a strong chance to improve in all areas other than steals. He's only 24 years old and the consistency I saw from him on a day-to-day basis makes me a believer. And hey, he's already the best available power option in my opinion.

The case for Ryan Howard
Let's start with the obvious. Ryan Howard was the overwhelming choice for rookie of the year. And with good reason. In just 88 games he scored 52 runs, had 63 RBI and the chicks loved him to the tune of 22 long balls. Projected over a full season, that's 115 RBI, 40 HR and 95 runs. I can live with that! But here's the thing: I haven't actually seen him play a full 162-game season. It's really easy to look at the ridiculous numbers and go nuts over the guy, but it would also be really annoying to find out that he hasn't figured out how to carry the numbers over a full season yet or how to battle out of his first prolonged slump. Sure, he could be the next David Ortiz as soon as this year. But he could also put up Pat Burrell's numbers from 2002 for all I know.

As I mentioned, our league counts strikeouts against you. And while it's easy to project Ryan Howard out to 40 home runs over the course of a full season, it's just as easy to project that he will strikeout 184 times on his way to those 40 home runs. For a bit of perspective, not even Adam Dunn strikes out 1.136 times per game.

There's plenty to like about Ryan Howard, and for all the hype I'm sure he will be someone's exciting reach on draft day. Did you know he's 26 years old? I actually thought he was younger than that until I looked just now. You know what else there is to like though? The fact that there are 13 other first-basemen out there who have put up actual (as opposed to merely projected) 40-home run seasons.

The Hairy Heeb's (hey, that's me!) call
Survey says: Jorge Cantu. In spite of the fact that Ryan Howard has the hype, an ROY award under his belt, an everyday job and might possibly perform more like David Ortiz than like the 2002 version of Pat Burrell, he loses to Cantu in my book for the following reasons:

Sample size: I have seen more from Cantu than Howard, so while anything's possible I feel less likely to be disappointed by what I see over a full season.

Age: Both players are young, but at 24 Cantu appears to be coming along at a quicker pace. Not that I have weekly coffee with his coaching staff or anything, but that's what the numbers tell me anyway. I expect more improvement from Cantu's fielding than I do from Howard's strikeouts.

The rest of the field: In spite of his flaws, Cantu's numbers are more impressive than Ryan Howard's in comparison to the other players available at their respective positions.

Bottom line: The baseball world seems united in its opinion that Ryan Howard has more upside, but for the 2006 season I'm learning my lesson for once and leaning toward the player who seems like the more immediate sure thing . . . I think!

That's all I got for tonight, folks. Feel free to stop by our message boards to get fantasy advice, read/write player updates, shoot the shit or let me know what a hairy, slobbering, retarded waste of space I am .

-- Written by Xach on February 07, 2006