Roto Musings: Baseball and (Not Much) More

Written by Worm on January 16, 2006

Fantasy sports have a lot of different facets to them, and we players can find pleasure from a number of different sources. Perhaps it gives us a new angle of appreciation of our favorite sports and athletes. Or, there's the opportunity to get involved in the competetive excitement of a game that lasts months, not hours. And then there's the aspect of camraderie, the networks and strange languages that develop through years of playing these games.

And then there's the game itself. Fantasy sports couldn't become as popular as they have if they weren't grounded on a truly challenging and sophisticated game. Sure, recognizing talent in the actual sport can be a big part of succeeding in fantasy sports, but there's so much more to it than just that.

For my part, I'm a numbers guy. I've had my nose in baseball stats ever since I was a kid. So, since fantasy sports is all about the numbers, in the end, I guess that means I'm all about fantasy sports. It's like a love triangle, and a calculator is my aphrodesiac.

Sounds scary, I know.

Anyway, with the arrival of the new year, baseball is just around the corner, and every year I celebrate this event by combing through the world of baseball stats as I put together my player rankings according to my Automatic Winner Folmura Urtimate Lankings (which haven't won me shit in years). Um, was that a run-on sentence? Can we get an editor in here?

I'm still in the early stages of my preparations, but I thought it might be fun to share some of the random observations I've made so far as I'm putting together my AWFUL spreadsheet.

The Model of Consistency
Albert Pujols has been just about the best hitter in baseball ever since day one of his rookie season. He is an undeniable force, and he puts up huge numbers year after year. But looking at his career numbers, I noticed a little curiosity. Check out his number of at-bats since he first broke into the league:

2001: 590 AB
2002: 590 AB
2003: 591 AB
2004: 592 AB
2005: 591 AB

The fact that he notched one fewer at-bat last year than his previous year, for the first time in his career, is an obvious sign of impending doom for Pujols' 2006 season. I strongly advise you to trade him to me, without delay.

The Lead-off Catcher
Speaking of at-bats, nobody who spends the game sitting behind the plate sees nearly as many ABs as the A's Jason Kendall. Kendall was 32nd overall in the majors in that category last year, with 601. The next closest catcher was Victor Martinez, with 547 AB, trailing Kendall by 54, and good for 77th overall in the majors. For Kendall to get so many more opportunities than other backstops is an obvious advantage for him, and would have been a greater pleasure for his fantasy owners last year if he had managed more than his zero motherfucking home runs.

Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. WTF
Here's Pat Burrell's batting averages over the past five years:

2001: .258
2002: .282
2003: .209
2004: .257
2005: .281

I mean seriously, what the fuck. Any guesses what he's gonna bat this year? At least he hits a bunch of homers every year.

Attack of the Clones!
Here's a little oddity. Check out these two shortstops' numbers for last season:

Jack Wilson: 60 R, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 58 K, 14 E, .257 AVG, .299 OBP, .363 SLG
Neifi Perez: 59 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 47 K, 12 E, .274 AVG, .298 OBP, .383 SLG

Not pretty, I know, but it's good to get confirmation, after Wilson's surprising 2004 campaign, that he is, in fact, Neifi Perez.

Before and After?
Right field is one of the most loaded offensive positions in baseball, right up there with first base. So, if you're looking to fill a fantasy roster spot in right field, you're usually looking for a hitting stud. Coming into last season, the expectation was for Aubrey Huff to fit that mould very well, and for good reason. Check out his season averages for the last few years before 2005:

83 R, 29 HR, 90 RBI, 4 SB, .307 AVG, .364 OBP, .524 SLG

Not bad, especially for a young'un. Certainly much better than your bottom-of-the-barrell right fielder like, say, Craig Monroe, who came up with numbers like this before last season:

58 R, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .267 AVG, .312 OBP, .469 SLG

Ugh, that's not so hot. Now I'm not gonna lie to you, Monroe did improve somewhat in 2005, but his numbers last season weren't that far out of line with what he'd done the previous couple of seasons. But, here, let's take a look at those 2005 numbers, side-by-side with the great Aubrey Huff's:

Monroe: 69 R, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB, .277 AVG, .322 OBP, .446 SLG
Huff: 70 R, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 8 SB, .261 AVG, .321 OBP, .428 SLG

Excuse me, Mr. Huff, are you feeling okay? You look a little pale.

Well, I hope you find this stuff as awesomely riveting as I do. Anyway, I've got lots more numbers to go through, so if you have any questions, leave me alone.

-- Written by Worm on January 16, 2006