Week 12 betting advice from a God

Written by Bartender Man on November 24, 2005

Well, I went 9-7 in last week’s predictions. Can’t complain about that, but I was sure hoping for better. The Arizona provided the biggest surprise by blowing out the Rams. Damn! Anyway, I’m in snowy Ohio visiting the girlfriend’s folks and here I am, the devoted football bettor I am, sitting down writing my football predictions devotedly. With that said, this week is Thanksgiving, and therefore, we get two early games. I’m making my picks earlier than usual without reading up on team’s progress through the week, so use a little extra caution when going to your bookie. Now go grab some hot apple cider, and turn on the NFL Network ‘cause it’s Turkey week!

Home teams are in caps, and remember to check up on the latest injury reports and weather forecasts, as well as any movement in the lines. Don‘t forget, lines tend to move as more people pick a certain team so the bookies need to balance the betting. The general public is usually stupid, ‘cause bookies tend to drive nicer cars than the general public. Or at least that’s what I read somewhere. I, as usual, won’t make my bets ‘til the night before the games.

Atlanta -3 over DETROIT
Atlanta has dropped two straight games at home. With Joey Harrington likely to start for the Lions, Atlanta should be able to abuse them to at least prove to themselves they can still compete for the NFC South division. However, if Garcia starts, I may reconsider this pick.

DALLAS +2.5 over Denver
This is probably the toughest game for me to pick. Each team has won its last three games. The defenses are of similar ranking. Denver’s offense is better, but they’re playing in Dallas. Denver’s away record is 2-2, whereas Dallas’s home record is 4-1. Plus, Dallas is tied for first and Denver has a two game lead in its division, so I’m thinking Dallas will want this game. I’m leaning toward Dallas with the points. I have a feeling most people will be taking Denver and moving the point spread further in Dallas’s favor, thus proving me correct.

KANSAS CITY -3 over New England
New England won their last two games, giving them two wins in a row for the first time this season. They’re overdue to lose one. I think with Kansas, playing at home and having better offensive and defensive rankings than the pats, should cover the three points.

CINCINNATI -9 over Baltimore
A team wishing this season would end already, coming into town to play a contender still upset at losing a close one to Indy the week before? I think the Bengals take it out on the Ravens this week. Watch to see if Ray Lewis and/or Ed Reed come back. I may take the points then.

BUFFALO + 4 over Carolina
I think Chicago showed last week that if you just let Steve Smith get his, and put the rest of your defensive focus on the rest of the Carolina offense, you can stop them. I think the Bills will follow that blueprint and beat them at home, or almost, so I gotta take the points.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Chicago
Here we have an overachieving team on a six-game winning streak going on the road to a contending team with a 4-1 home record and a good defense. Time for a loss. I really like Tampa in this game as Chris Simms is getting a better handle on the offense.

San Diego -3 over WASHINGTON
Washington’s defense has only allowed one less point than San Diego’s, but San Diego’s offense has scored a hundred more points than Washington’s. I like the Chargers a lot if Gates is healthy, otherwise, being on the road, without Gates, makes this pick a lot less attractive. I’ll be keeping a close eye the injury report for this one.

MINNESOTA -4 over Cleveland
I like Brad Johnson’s handling of the offense. Plus Cleveland has only won one game on the road so far this season. This spells letdown for the Browns.

San Francisco +8 over TENNESSEE
Yeah, I know San Fran’s winless on the road, but a bad home team(1-4 at home) giving eight points is crazy in my book. I’m certain the Titans will win, just not by this many points. If this spread goes down a bit, I may very well reconsider.

HOUSTON +4 over St. Louis
After last week’s meltdown at home against Arizona, I can’t see any justification for the Rams to lay any points on the road to anybody. Maybe with beer goggles on……

Jacksonville -3.5 over Arizona
This game has let down written all over it. Plus, Arizona, being tougher at home, still has a losing record at home and they’re hosting a contending team with a winning road record. Leftwich is developing quite nicely for the Jags.

OAKLAND -7 over Miami
Miami fell apart last week against the Browns. I see Oakland sweeping those pieces up and throwing them out in this game.

Giants +4.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Anybody with a winning record getting points against the Eagles, anywhere, is a gift. Thanks Santa!

JETS +1.5 over New Orleans
Jets lost their last five. Saints lost their last six. SOMEONE’S gotta win here! I think it’ll be hilarious if it ended up as an overtime tie. Even then, you win with this pick. The Jets are at home where they won their only two games. No place like home…..no place like home……

Pittsburg at INDIANAPOLIS
As of today, I didn’t see a line for this game. Unless the pointspread is in the double digits, I would take the Colts in this one.

So there you have it. My week 12 predictions. Have some turkey, drink some(or lots) of Wild Turkey, and as usual……don’t forget to tip your bartender!

-- Written by Bartender Man on November 24, 2005