NFL Division Capsules: AFC EAST
Written by Ape on August 09, 2005
Though most Americans are unaware, real NFL players put on real NFL uniforms last weekend and held a preseason game in Japan. With baseball lacking some of the excitement that the Steroid Era provided over the last 15 years, sports fans are licking their chops to see people beginning to round into form for their season that are actually athletic (what other sport could Matthew LeCroy play?).
The Ape will endeavor to help fellow fantasy football owners prepare for their upcoming seasons by going through each division with team-by-team fantasy snapshots. While this may seem a little less accessible than those large lists of rankings by position that most magazines offer, it may well be the more valuable since most fantasy football leagues are head-to-head, and less than half the players on most fantasy football teams are dominant enough to perform well week-to-week, regardless of opponent. Since division teams account for a large chunk of each other’s schedules, this list may help to break down some individual match-ups week-to-week.
Let’s get started…
Buffalo Bills: Despite the fact that Drew Bledsoe played well in the second half and got the Bills to .500 by the end of the season, Mike Mularkey and Tom Donahoe decided to go with youth and athleticism by choosing uber question mark J.P. Losman to start under center. Losman boasts the mobility in and out of the pocket that Bledsoe could only dream about--think Forest Gump with leg braces vs. Forest Gump without. Still, this could be problematic for the Bills, who boast a playoff caliber defense, a pair of excellent receivers and an RB in Willis McGahee--who many expect to be among the leagues best. The Bills’ Achilles heel (assuming it isn’t Losman) is their offensive line, particularly when it is called to pass protect. This is a real double-edged sword for Losman. On the one hand, having a horrible O-line basically got him the job as the starter, since it couldn’t keep a pocket intact long enough to allow the static Bledsoe to plant and throw. On the other hand, no matter how athletic the guy is, being effectively a rookie QB with a line that has no shot of holding off a good pass rush--much less a blitz--is a recipe for disaster. Sacks and INTs kill drives. The Bills’ fortunes will depend a lot more on what is resting on Losman’s shoulders rather than the speed of his feet.
QB: With most fantasy leagues sporting 10-14 teams and the NFL boasting 30 starting QBs, I can’t see how any owner would be sizing up Losman as his guy at QB this year. Shower that owner with trade proposals if he exists in your league. Really, unless your league format heavily weights rushing TDs, Losman is not your guy. In the best case, he’ll be an efficient game manager--like Ben Roethlisberger was last year--a QB who compliments McGahee and occasionally throws a deep ball to keep defenses honest.
RB: Willis McGahee was the best RB in college during his last year at Miami. He was one of the best backs in the NFL last year. That horrible knee injury keeps getting further behind him. The Ape suggests you get behind McGahee this year. He’s a top 5 pick all the way.
WR: Every other year Eric Moulds goes over a thousand yards. Too bad he went over 1,000 least year. With the aforementioned uncertainty at QB, the Ape bets that this alternating trend will continue. It follows that Lee Evans isn’t going to be a yardage king either this year. Roscoe Parrish looks for all the world like a sleeper, but with the Ape projecting a less than prolific pass offense spread among three quality receivers and the likes of Josh Reed and some tight ends sprinkled into the mix, I’d hold off on these guys until all the other options are off the board.
TE: Mark Campbell had 5 TD catches last year and could well repeat that number. Problem was he only had 12 other catches of any kind, and his back up Ryan Neufeld had only six catches. Throw in the fact that last year’s starter, Bledsoe, loves the tight end, and make sure that one of these guys isn’t on your roster.
Defense: The Bills defense, surprisingly, was the number two overall defense in the league. If the offense hadn’t played like a steaming number two, the D might have gotten some credit. While Matt Schobel and Takeo Spikes pressured the QB, London Fletcher held down the middle as the team’s top tackler. Troy Vincent and Nate Clements headed a stingy secondary, and Sam Adams was fat clogging the middle.
Miami Dolphins: Unfortunately ‘most hyped new coach’ is not a fantasy category, so Dolphins fans and fantasy owners alike are going to be left wanting for production. The biggest problem being that, despite the coach, it takes more than Mike Winchell to get some wins in the NFL, and the lovable Permian Panther would be an upgrade over the Dolphins QB troika or AJ Feeley, Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels. Seriously, how is any coach supposed to look good when he’s choosing his starting QB from among three low-upside career back ups. Mix in a suspect offensive line that replaced good sized question marks with massive (literally) question marks, and what you really have is a team doing its best to squelch any potential it might have at its skill positions.
QB: Avoid these guys like the plague. They will leave their team and yours dead in a shallow grave.
RB: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are an obvious handcuff set here. Ronnie is definitely the one to get early, though, since he will have a nice month-long audition to see if he’s the real deal. If he averages four yards per carry, you should consider keeping him considering he will be doing it against eight and possibly nine men in the box. Williams will be another team’s starter next year, and he could be kept as well for that reason.
WR: Marty Booker, Chris Chambers and even some rumblings that David Boston is in good shape and ready to play…gosh, if only Jay Fiedler was here to make sure these guys actually caught some passes. The bottom line is all three of the above are talented receivers with Chambers the best of the bunch, but the hideous QB situation hangs over them like a black cloud. Look elsewhere in the early rounds for your receivers. Get these guys after you’ve secured your starting group. They have potential, but no certainty.
TE: Randy McMichael is a borderline elite tight end. He should be one of the top five or six guys off the board at that position. Especially since none of Miami’s quarterbacks have demonstrated any ability to complete passes down field to receivers.
Defense: Despite their high school caliber offense, the Dolphins D was very good last year. The loss of Patrick Surtain and Brock Marion may poke a hole in what was an air tight secondary, but the front seven is still imposing, and Tim Bowens and Larry Chester will attract enough attention to allow Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Junior Seau to do what they do best.
New England Patriots: The world’s greatest football team is surprisingly deficient in providing great solutions for your fantasy football team. In the first few years of their current run, the Pats could at least be counted on to throw the ball 35 times a game, but since the heist that was the Corey Dillon trade (no offense to Madei Williams of course or to Marvin Lewis who thinks it was a good deal for Cincy), all the Pats intriguing players have played second fiddle to the bruising ground game and have become a true possession oriented team. Especially since the passing game features so many weapons of roughly equal talent. Outside of Dillon there are no studs here.
QB: It’s hard to see Brady doing better than the 3,600 yards and 28 TDs he put up last year. The big problem is those number come in bunches, since the Pats are just as happy, perhaps happier, winning games 13-7. Still, the losses of the Teds--Johnson and Bruschi--may end up weakening the defense to the point where a few more high scoring games are in the offing.
RB: Corey Dillon is a top 10 RB, and would be top 5 if his keeper potential was as high as the other backs who will threaten 1600 yards and 15+ touchdowns. If you’re picking outside of the top 5 he should be your man. The Pats showed a willingness to use him as their horse, even towards the end of the year when all his big money incentives started vesting. There really isn’t anyone on the roster that threatens his work load either.
WR: Don’t believe anything except that if Deion Branch is healthy he is the number one receiver on this team. If Branch gets injured, Givens becomes a worthy start. David Terrell is a sleeper because of his size (the only member of the Pats receiving corps over 6’0”) and because of the nice relationship he had with Brady during their days together at Michigan. The local papers have reported that Brady and Terrell have looked good together during camp.
TE: Daniel Graham and Ben Watson look to be 1 and 1a going into the season. Both have the talent to be top flight fantasy tight ends, but each is held back by the other, as well as by the numerous high quality receivers in the Pat’s stable. Both warrant your attention because they have big upside, but neither is a lock to contribute anything meaningful on a given week.
Defense: New England has defined its championship run by employing the ‘bend but don’t break’ philosophy on defense. If your league emphasizes yardage allowed, then the Pats’ D is not elite…usually coming in around 10th. However, if scoring defense is valued in your league then the Pats’ D should be one of the first picked. Individually, the stars will change a bit with the departure of Teddy Bruschi and Ty Law. Mike Vrabel is a good bet for tackles and sacks as he will likely play just as much inside as outside linebacker. Rodney Harrison will probably replace Bruschi as the team’s top tackler. A nice sleeper for sacks is Roosevelt Colvin who, according to reports from camp, is back to 100% after hip surgery two years ago and is looking like the guy who had back-to-back double digit sack years in Chicago. Eugene Wilson is probably the best ball hawk if you’re looking for picks.
New York Jets: By all reports Chad Pennington has left off with his beef with reporters. Others report that he has looked good in camp so far and will be back to 100% by opening day if not sooner. The Jets couldn’t be happier as their offense didn’t take the league by storm with Cokesy Carter at the helm. The Jets again feature one of the best offensive lines in the AFC, and they’ll look to keep their attack balanced as they try to return to the playoffs and figure out the Patriots under Herm Edwards.
QB: At his best Pennington is a top possession QB with an excellent TD-to-INT ratio. If your league values completion percentage, then he is right on the cusp of elite status. However, he’s not the type to top 30 TDs or 4,000 yards.
RB: Curtis Martin, despite his age and heavy workload over the years, is one of those players you don’t want to count out. Last year, most experts did, and he proceeded to win the rushing title. As long as the Jets premium offensive line is intact, Martin is a good bet for well over 1,000 yards and 10 scores. Talented backup Derrick Blaylock was signed to replace Lamont Jordan, but, like Jordan, he will probably bide most of his time on the bench.
WR: The Ape has always been a big Laveraneus Coles fan, but his mysterious foot injury is a source of concern. Still, with a competent and well protected QB and a quality RB to divide an opponent’s focus, Coles should come close to his career bests in catches, yards and TDs. Justin McCariens is a tease, but should improve in his second year with the Jets. If either goes down, you know you’ll get a solid effort from consummate pro Wayne Chrebet.
TE: Doug Jolley is a capable TE and should be considered after the top tight ends are off the board. Pennington didn’t seem to like throwing to Anthony Becht, but perhaps Jolley will be more to his liking.
Defense: The formula probably won’t change too much for the Jets’ defense, which boasts a lightning quick pass rush but has some trouble stopping the run. Ty Law, if healthy, could have a positive effect on the sack totals of premier rushers John Abraham and Shaun Ellis. Jonathan Vilma should be a tackle machine in his second year, and Vic Hobson could also emerge as an all-around threat with the attention that Ellis and Abraham command. Law has never been a fantasy force individually, but he could help the Jets’ D become very attractive in leagues picking team defenses.
