Mock NFL fantasy draft analysis -- CFG Experts League rounds 1-3

Written by Xach on July 13, 2005

By Dr. Furious and Xach

And with the first selection in the 2005 Fantasy Football Draft, Doctor Furious selects... LaDainian Tomlinson, running back, from Texas Christian University.

Well, there is nothing like logging on for a fantasy draft and discovering that you have the first pick. That's exactly what we found Doctor Furious was sitting on this past Sunday when we participated in the first annual coolfantasyguys.com experts league draft. Xach, on the other hand, was sitting on the 10th pick. Sure, it's a bit early in the summer to draw any accurate conclusions from a draft, but Doctor Furious and Xach are here to spread both love and hate all over this draft anyway.

Presented here are the first three rounds of draft results along with our respective commentaries.

Note: The scoring system was head-to-head, yardage heavy for QB's, and with short starting rosters. We have listed the exact scoring and roster breakdowns at the bottom, for those who are interested. After all, any draft's results are only as meaningful as its league's setup.

Fury’s take
The first round went pretty much as I had expected, with the exception of a few big wrinkles. Having the first pick can be both a gift and a curse. While you are guaranteed to get one of the big dogs, you will have to watch 20 to 24 picks roll off the board before your next selection (depending on league size of course). My selection of Ladainian Tomlinson was a no-brainer; especially with rumors of Alexander possibly holding out.

Shaun Alexander went second, as I had expected. He's a great number two pick in spite of the rumors.

Kevin Jones surprised me as the next pick. I had Jones pegged for a mid-second round selection, not the third overall.

Moss at seven was also a tad high, in my opinion, but he probably would have not made it back to Mic Allen in the next round, and I do predicting big things for Randy this season. Of course that all depends if Kelly -- I mean Kerry -- Collins can get him the ball.

Manning at nine and Culpepper at eleven are great picks. I thought Manning would be one of the first seven selections and you cannot get any better value with a number nine pick. Many “experts” are down on Culpepper, but I do not share this view. While the loss of Moss may affect Daunte’s passing yards, it will probably force him to run more. Robinson and Burleson are serviceable receivers for him, and Jermaine Wiggins (from East Boston) gives him a nice target in the red zone. He will still be a stud this season, especially in leagues that place emphasis on rushing yards.

Xach's take
Simply put, I think Furious made the right call with Ladainian Tomlinson. For as long as he's been in the NFL, I have tried to keep Tomlinson on lock down in as many keeper leagues as possible.

Shaun Alexander was no surprise at number two either. He could very well be the fantasy football MVP this season. With the 10th pick, I expected to see these guys fly off the board, but it was still painful to watch. Oh, how my loins burned to make sweet love to these two backs. Ummm, okay, so moving on...

The good Doctor is a bit more diplomatic in his assessment, but I'll come right out and say it: If you're drafting tomorrow, don't make Kevin Jones the third player selected in your draft. Sure, he's got the talent to be a top pick, but he hasn't proved it yet and with a top five pick, the name of the game is "security." I don't see any security here. Yes, he could be a top flight running back as soon as this season, but so far as I'm aware there's no proof that he actually will be (cue nasty emails from Vince "Fry Guy" Frieden at CFG).

If Priest Holmes stays healthy, he's probably the best running back in the game. I expected to see him at the number three spot. That said, age and durability questions keep me from recommending him. His proven upside is so staggering though, that you can't really blame a guy for drafting him at number four.

McGahee is a fine pick at number five, in my book. His talent is limitless, and until that surgically repaired knee of his looks like a problem -- which it hasn't so far -- we have to assume it's A-okay.

I didn't have Deuce McAllister pegged quite this high for 2005, but he's obviously got the goods.

Edgerrin James at number eight is about as much of a no-brainer as Tomlinson at number one. If he slides to eighth in your league, jump all over him.

Peyton Manning is another no-brainer if he slips this far. In a QB heavy league, he should go in the top three, if not at number one. Given the particular league setup, I believe people were concerned with deflated value at the QB position. For most leagues, you can expect Manning to be gone by the fifth pick or so, I would imagine.

Doctor Furious was polite in leaving Jamal Lewis out of his first round analysis. That's fine with me. I accept the tacit criticism. Lewis has been far too productive in the past for me to turn him down at the end of the first round. I feel safer with what I know I've seen from Lewis -- even with the knee concerns -- than with what I haven't seen from the likes of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Clinton Portis. In my mind the only dilemma was between Lewis and Domanick Davis.

Culpepper's a fine pick at the end of the round, although this league's QB-weak scoring system and the loss of Randy Moss scared me away.

As for Clinton Portis, what can I say? I was unimpressed with his numbers in Washington last season. Everyone was. Unless the Redskins have hired a new offensive coordinator or beefed up their offensive line considerably (neither of which is a change I'm aware of), I'm bumping him into the second round somewhere.

Fury’s Take
The second round was less surprising than the first. I did have Dominick Davis as a first round pick. It is interesting that he slipped into the second round of this draft.

A couple of other things to notice about this round: Chad Johnson was selected before T.O., Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt. I had Johnson ranked third on my depth chart for receivers this season, after Moss, of course, and T.O. It is easy to see why Johnson might be a more logical choice, while Owens is still locked in a contract dispute with no sign of resolution. Johnson may not get into the end zone as often as Harrison, or accumulate as many yards as Holt, but he is primed for a 1300 yd/10 td season. His durability and consistency make him a valuable fantasy commodity.

Lamont Jordan was taken a little high at 22, but I say this only because I was ready to take him at pick 24. A certain Cool Fantasy Guy foiled my perfect plan. To that I say BOOO!

Xach’s Take
Dillon, Davis, Barber and Jones are all steady producers, and fantasy football tends to be ruled by running backs. No surprises there.

In the second round, Chad Johnson was the first real surprise I saw. Talented as he is, Chad Johnson just doesn't jump out at me as the smart pick here. I admit that in this draft, I too made many mistakes, but as a feller once said: do as I say, not as I do. Chad Johnson may very well be the second coming of Randy Moss. I don't deny it. He may well be the best receiver in football this year, for all I know. However, none of this has been proven to me yet by his performance. What has been proven is that so far Chad Johnson has been as inconsistent as his team's offense. Through the first 10 weeks of 2004 he had only two touchdowns. Of course, that means he had a whopping seven touchdowns down the final stretch (a terrific sign of his capabilities), but if he suffers an extended drought again this season, his fantasy owners will be weeping.

One thing I always preach when discussing head-to-head leagues is consistency. In my opinion, a player who gets you 10 points each week is worth far more than a guy who gets you 20 points every other week, or 30 points once every three weeks. With only 17 weeks in the football season, you can't afford to lose 5 or 6 games just because your star player only scores every three weeks. If you're in a fantasy points or rotisserie league (both of which are rare for football), go ahead and push him up your draft charts. However, since what I look for is the greatest guarantee of points on a week to week basis, as opposed to the overall numbers, I would rather have Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt than Chad Johnson coming out of a head-to-head draft in 2005. 'Sall I got to say.

Fury’s take
The beginning of this round looks about the way I expected it to.

Brian Westbrook actually slid a good amount. I thought he would be gone before the end of the second round.

Most of the receivers in were chosen slightly earlier than I expected except for Andre Johnson. He was drafted way earlier than I expected. I thought he would be around in the late fourth or early fifth round.

Also I am not sure that you take Nate Burleson before Ward or Horn. Then again, who else is Culpepper going to throw to?

Reggie Wayne looks like really good value as the last pick of this round. I think this is the year he becomes Manning’s number one target.

Xach’s take
I agree with almost everything the good Doctor just said in his round three analysis. I was quite worried that Joe Horn would not slide to me. I even remember waiting for my pick and typing, "slide, baby, slide..." on the live draft chat board, hoping that Horn would fall into my lap. I lucked out.

I would have been almost as happy with Hines Ward or Reggie Wayne, but I'm glad I got the guy I wanted.

I do disagree with Doc Fury on one issue here: I think Andre Johnson is more valuable than either Roy Williams or Nate Burleson. It's a moot point, since I agree that all three of these guys should have been drafted after Ward, Horn and Wayne, but I like Johnson's chances to produce better numbers than Burleson or Williams, just based on steady improvement as well as last year's numbers. He's less of a question mark in my mind.

Well, that concludes our analysis of rounds 1-3. Check in again soon for the rest of our round by round analyses.

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League setup:

Roster Positions:
QB, WR, WR, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN


Scoring:
Passing Yards (25 yards per point), Passing Touchdowns (4), Interceptions (-2), Rushing Yards (10 yards per point), Rushing Touchdowns (6), Reception Yards (10 yards per point), Reception Touchdowns (6), Return Touchdowns (6), 2-Point Conversions (2), Fumbles Lost (-2), Offensive Fumble Return TD (6), Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3), Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3), Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3), Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4), Field Goals 50+ Yards (5), Point After Attempt Made (1), Sack (1), Interception (2), Fumble Recovery (2), Touchdown (3), Safety (2), Block Kick (2), Points Allowed 0 points (10), Points Allowed 1-6 points (7), Points Allowed 7-13 points (4), Points Allowed 14-20 points (1), Points Allowed 21-27 points (0), Points Allowed 28-34 points (-4), Points Allowed 35+ points (-7)

-- Written by Xach on July 13, 2005