Early thoughts from the first football draft of the season

Written by TiVo on June 28, 2005

Brother Teevs took part in an insanely early fantasy football draft June 23, which means you the reader can benefit from some advance knowledge before the beer to be consumed at your draft is even a drop in the fermentation tank.

While I can’t show you the whole draft board (appropriating content from your employer and giving it away free on the web is probably a good way to get fired), I can point out some trends, strange happenings and things to look for that might help you in your drafts this season. And if you must see the draft in question, it’ll be in USA Today Sports Weekly’s special fantasy football preview, which should hit stands later this summer and be cheaper and much more up-to-date than those $7.95 pieces of crap someone always brings to the draft site.

The draft was based on a 12-team league model, using a fairly standard scoring system that favors touchdowns more than yards: six points for passing, rushing and receiving TDs, and a point per 50 yards passing, and one per 20 yards rushing/receiving. Other stuff was standard, like three points for field goals and negative two for interceptions. Defenses and Special Teams came as one.

Here’s the team I drafted, first by round, then what it looks like by position. I picked third overall, which meant I didn’t pick again until 22 and 27.

1st round
Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle -- Third was actually a tough spot to pick in, because I thought like LaDainian Tomlinson and Peyton Manning were head and shoulders above the fantasy crowd. I looked long and hard at Daunte Culpepper, who should still be able to post gaudy passing stats despite the trade of Randy Moss to Oakland. But that’s a possibility, not the kind of guarantee you’d like to have at No. 3. Plenty of runners, including Ahman Green, Deuce McAllister, Jamal Lewis and Priest Holmes, fit the first-round bill, and young backs Willis McGahee, Julius Jones and Kevin Jones are in picks this year and will definitely go high in your drafts. I settled on Alexander because of his consistent TD numbers the past four seasons -- 14, 16, 14 and 16. He added 4, 2, 2 and 2 TDs receiving, and remember the scoring system for this league.

2nd
Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati -- I thought a very good but overlooked back, perhaps a Corey Dillon or Edgerrin James, might fall to me here, or at least I’d have a shot at one of the Joneses. But boy was I wrong. Fifteen backs when among the first 21 picks, including all of the backs I mentioned above, plus Curtis Martin, Rudi Johnson, Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook. At that point, Manning and Culpepper were the only QBs off the board, while WRs Moss, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison rounded out the draft so far. Instead of going for the 16th back on the board, I took the 5th receiver, knowing I could address the RBs as the second-tier backs came off the board.

3rd
LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland -- This isn’t a bad pick, but after I took Johnson, here’s who went: Steven Jackson of the Rams, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Tiki Barber of the Giants and RB Domanick Davis of the Texans. Surely one of them was worthy of my pick at 22. That said, Jordan is ready to be a stud after four years as a backup in New York. Raiders coach Norv Turner, who coached Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis and Ricky Williams, loves to run the ball too. But with all those toys in Oakland -- Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry for QB Kerry Collins to throw to, there’s no telling how many carries Jordan will get or what kind of numbers he will put up.

4th
Trent Green, QB, Kansas City -- Left out of the elite class of QBs, and with the breakout candidate I wanted (Carson Palmer) off the board before even my third pick, I took the No. 5 QB on my rank sheet. Manning, Culpepper, McNabb, Palmer, Michael Vick, Brett Favre, Collins and Marc Bulger had all been drafted already, and waiting longer on a QB might have dropped me into a different class -- but WR Hines Ward and RBs Duce Staley, Michael Bennett, Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor, among others, were still on the board then.

5th
Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland -- This is part buying into the hype that the Raiders will be prolific, but how can they not be? With Moss almost guaranteed to draw double-coverage, the talented Porter should be able to get open and get you numbers. It was either him or Staley here, and Duce went five picks later.

6th
Eric Moulds, WR, Buffalo -- I took Moulds over Taylor and Carolina’s DeShaun Foster. Both could actually be running back steals, because they are coming off injuries that will hurt their draft stock. Keep an eye out for this in your drafts. Moulds should be a fine receiver, but I think I’ll regret not taking a back here.

7th
Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City -- My regret showed, as I reached to get Johnson in this round. It could end up being a great pick, as Johnson got over Coach Dick Vermeil’s “diapers” comment and played well last season. Unfortunately, it was in relief of the injury-prone Holmes, and using a pick this early on a player who needs someone else to get hurt before he sees major time is not a wise move.

8th
Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona -- This pick probably baffled a few of my fellow drafters, and since value is in the eye of the beholder, I may have been able to pick up Warner later. But I really think Warner proved he had something left in his play with the Giants last year. The Arizona offense is right up his alley, and if young receivers Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson come along, Warner could be a fantasy starter.

9th
Stephen Davis, RB, Carolina -- This pick was also a result of my lack of RB depth, but it could be a steal. When healthy, Davis is the best back on the Panthers’ roster and one of the 15 best backs in the league. Worth a shot at this point, and probably better than being one of the first to take a kicker or defense.

10th
Peerless Price, WR, Atlanta -- I made this pick based on pure potential. Can this guy really be this bad after having a great season in Buffalo? He’s had the time to learn Atlanta’s offense and develop a rapport with Vick. He might end up being useless, but in the 10th, no pick is really that awful.

11th
Carolina defense and special teams -- Buffalo was ranked much higher, but I fell into the convenient trap of drafting on defensive reputation, and thinking the Panthers front four would get me points in sacks. Remember to look at the possible generation of special teams points here too. I went defense because I wasn’t in love with any pick on the board, and Baltimore, New England and Philadelphia had gone recently.

12th
Justin McCareins, WR, Titans -- Much like Price, he was a disappointment as a free agent signing. But in New York, with Chad Pennington healthy and a better receiver (Laveranues Coles instead of Santana Moss) across from him drawing defensive attention (and top cover men), McCareins could definitely be a steal at 12. I almost took Oakland’s Curry here, but ended up with him later.

13th
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh -- I had to start addressing the tight end situation. I’ve never owned Tony Gonzalez, but I usually get a second-tier tight end. This year, there’s actually a decent top tier, led my San Diego TD machine Antonio Gates and Gonzalez, who puts up wide reciever numbers. Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler and Jeremy Shockey round out the five that will probably go first in your draft, and most owners would be happy to own Miami’s Randy McMichael, little-known Eric Johnson of San Francisco (especially with a rookie passer looking to get rid of the ball) or even Philadelphia’s L.J. Smith. Miller, a studly rookie out of Virginia, should become a short-yardage target for the still-relatively-inexperienced Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

14th
Chris Cooley, TE, Washington -- Not wanting to leave the job solely to Miller, I grabbed a player who many people in your league might not even know about. There’s not much else on the Redskins offense, and Cooley is the real deal. You could do much worse than to own him.

15th
Matt Stover, K, Baltimore -- Eventually, you have to take a kicker, and again I passed on the elite class. David Akers and Adam Vinatieri went in the 10th round, Mike Vanderjagt and Shayne Graham in the 11th and Jason Elans and Jeff Wilkins in the 12th. Stover is among the league’s most consistent kickers, and should get a lot of opportunities if you believe that Kyle Boller can move the ball with a healthy Jamal Lewis and better receivers.

16th
Ronald Curry, WR, Oakland -- This former high school phenom and college QB showed flashes of brilliance late last season, and if the Raiders offense is as wide-open as it’s cracked up to be, Curry could benefit from the defensive attention paid Moss too. Since I almost took him in the 12th, I was pleased to end my draft with him.

The required lineup was QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex, K, D/ST. Here’s how my team looks, broken down by position:
QB: T. Green (4th round), K. Warner (8th)
RB: S. Alexander (1st), L. Jordan (3rd), L. Johnson (7th), S. Davis (9th)
WR: C. Johnson (2nd), J. Porter (5th), E. Moulds (6th), P. Price (10th), J. McCareins (12th), R. Curry (16th)
TE: H. Miller (13th), C. Cooley (14th)
K: M. Stover (15th)
D/ST: Carolina (11th)

What I like about this team: If you’re not high on Green, Warner or the Raiders offense, this squad might look like a stinker, but it stacks up favorably against the other teams who drafted quarterbacks in the first five rounds. The clear winners in this draft, I think, were the two teams that waited until the seventh round or later to draft quarterbacks. One got Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme, while the other landed Drew Brees and Aaron Brooks. Plus, they were each able to add impact RBs, WRs or TEs when others were using picks on QBs.

What I’d do differently: I’d have definitely used either my 5th or 6th round pick on one of the running backs I mentioned. Even if you get stiffed on the first 15 or 20 backs, there will be four rookies (Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Cedric Benson and JJ Arrington) expected to carry the load for their respective teams, plus back-by-committee situations in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Carolina and Minnesota that could pay big dividends if you draft the guy who gets the most carries. Also, Fred Taylor’s injury in Jacksonville is worth watching. He’s a stud when healthy. Buffalo’s Travis Henry is a possibility there if Taylor can’t play, or in Tennessee if Chris Brown isn’t healthy.

I’d also lay off the two quarterbacks in the first eight rounds. Warner, Delhomme, Jake Plummer and Drew Brees were taken in the eighth round. Bryon Leftwich, Chad Pennington, David Carr and Brooks went in the 10th, breakout-year candidate Joey Harrington went in the 11th, Brian Griese, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning in the 12th. Kyle Boller and Steve McNair -- amazingly -- went in the 13th and Rex Grossman was Mr. Irrelevant. Detroit backup Jeff Garcia was the only other QB drafted. Starters in San Francisco, Dallas and Cleveland weren’t touched.

Point is, you could definitely win with several stud skill players and one of the QBs above. And if one makes you queasy, you could probably have two of them anytime after the 8th round, when some owners start filling their benches or drafting kickers.

Later in the week, or perhaps month, I’ll bring you more from this draft, including general trends regarding forgotten third receivers, when the last team to take a QB picked, and what to expect with certain first-round draft slots. I’ll also point out a few players who slid, and a few who were drafted too early.

Berate, belittle or big-up TiVo at Tivo@rotogods.com. Or find him lurking the message boards 24-7. Hip-hop and funk fans can also peep TiVo’s musical musings occasionally on allthangsfunky.blogspot.com

-- Written by TiVo on June 28, 2005