The Morning Offering - June 5, 2005

Written by Worm on June 05, 2005

Hey there, and welcome to the first Sunday edition of The Morning Offering. If you have any sense in you, you won’t be reading this until Sunday afternoon, in which case you should share your thoughts with us here. That is, unless you’ve gotten up early to watch the men’s finals at this year’s French Open. If you’re watching, enjoy the beginnings of young Rafael Nadal’s career. We can look forward to years of brilliant tennis from this spectacular teenage talent.

Back in January, I reviewed a statistical analysis I had performed, trying to predict top roto baseball performers for this season. I thought it might be fun to compare those predictions with the best overall performers to date this season, and to look at the factors affecting why they have or haven’t performed according to expectations. I draw my current top ratings from ESPN.com’s sortable baseball statistics, which can be a valuable evaluative resource during the season.

Predicted Top Catcher – Victor Martinez
Martinez has in fact been one of the poorest regular catchers so far this season. The entire Indians lineup has been sucking it up so far, and hitting coach Eddie Murray has just been fired as a result. Martinez has started heating up recently, though, and the entire catcher position is so shitty, it wouldn’t take much for Martinez to claim the top spot before too long.

Current Top Catcher – Jason Varitek
Varitek has shown flashes of excellent hitting throughout his career, but hasn’t been able to maintain it through a full season, for one reason or another. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finally pull it off one of these years.

Predicted Top First Baseman – Todd Helton
So far, this has been way off. At this point, I don’t see Helton dominating the list of first basemen on the season, although I think I stand with most people in expecting him to improve on his current numbers. I think the pressures of a weaker lineup than any he has ever hit in are responsible for his poor showing so far.

Current Top First Baseman – Derrek Lee
Derrek Lee?! Well, we knew he was a good hitter, and people have been predicting his breakout for a few seasons, but this is ridiculous. He’s cooled down a bit of late, but he had a nice game again last night. It certainly figures to be his best season to date.

Predicted Top Second Baseman – Jeff Kent
Kent hasn’t been doing too badly, but he’s been a notch below what you might hope, given his track record. His home park and advancing age are contributing factors. Still a good player at a weak position, though.

Current Top Second Baseman – Brian Roberts
Maybe, now that he’s injured, the aliens will replace this cyborg with the kidnapped original. Nobody foresaw his showing so far this year.

Predicted Top Shortstop – Miguel Tejada
Well, I finally got one right, so far. Miggy has been carrying a large part if the Orioles’ offense, and is in fact currently ranked second to:

Current Top Shortstop – Carlos Guillen
This one is a bit of a surprise. First of all, he only had his first really good season last year. But also, who knew he was doing this well this year, too? If you look at his per-game contributions you’ll see how valuable he’s been. However, he’s struggling with a lingering knee issue, so expect this ranking to drop somewhat.

Predicted Top Third Baseman – Alex Rodriguez
Two for my last two. Rodriguez figures to keep producing prodigious numbers the rest of the way, particularly when the rest of the Yankees lineup hits its stride.

Current Top Third Baseman – Alex Rodriguez
Surprise! Currently in second is Chipper Jones, though he’s dropping off as he battles some nagging injuries.

Predicted Top Left Fielder – Barry Bonds
Barry is still the best left fielder in his own fantasies, don’t worry. Barry’s frustrating absence has damaged a great many fantasy teams. You should still take a flyer on Harry Honds.

Current Top Left Fielder – David Dellucci
I didn’t even know he was making this list. Wow. A favorite of Buck Showalter’s is earning his keep. Make sure he’s owned in your league. I doubt he’ll be at the top of this list at the end of the season, though.

Predicted Top Center Fielder – Carlos Beltran
Beltran is still adjusting to his new surroundings, and recovering his full health. He hasn’t been bad, but you can expect a lot more out of him the rest of the way. Fortunately, my secondary prediction has held its own:

Current Top Center Fielder – Jim Edmonds
Edmonds continues to age like a fine wine. Sure, he strikes out, but what else is there not to like? If he stays healthy, he could own the top spot the rest of the way.

Predicted Top Right Fielder – Vladimir Guerrero
Injury has kept him from making his full Vladness felt. He’s still a candidate to own this spot at the end of the season.

Current Top Right Fielder – Bobby Abreu
This guy has been awesome. He had a great year last year, and has been solid enough again this year that anybody who owns this guy should definitely trade Ben Sheets to me before it’s too late.

Well, that’s it for this morning. Enjoy your pizza, and good luck with your next week of roto.

-- Written by Worm on June 05, 2005