MLB Waiver Wire Roulette, Vol. 1

Written by Xach on May 23, 2005

Gosh it's late. And here I am just tippity-typing the pre-dawn hours away instead of sleeping. But hey, if millions of people are going to waste untold hours of each day playing fantasy sports, I guess it makes sense that someone should waste their time writing about it. And, um, that someone is apparently me. Yeah, it's a tough life.

Say, you know what's popular these days? It seems very popular to write columns that point out "smart" waiver wire pickups. The thing about these columns is that the players they mention are almost never available on any waiver wire. Does this happen to everyone? Or is it just me? I read fantasy columns and more often than not I think to myself "what league is this guy playing in?" I dunno, maybe our 12-team league with 25-man rosters is unusually deep, but I don't think so.

You know what else is popular these days? Columns that recommend "smart" waiver wire pickups! Yes, I know just said this last paragraph. But this time I'm addressing a different problem with these columns. Whenever they mention a player who is actually available on my league's waiver wire there's usually a disclaimer such as "only for deep NL-only leagues," or "this one's a deep reach." Does this happen to everyone? Or is it just me? Because in my world, these types of "recommendations" usually mean I shouldn't pick the player up yet unless I feel a particular need to waste a roster spot. The mere fact that Juan Castro is now the Twins' starting SS doesn't mean he deserves waiver wire consideration.

Sure, sometimes I do find an interesting scrap of information in a waiver wire article and sign a given player, but more often than not I find myself wishing there were a middle ground.

So, for this morning's offering I thought I would cover waiver wire transactions that occurred recently in my leagues. I won't bother with every single add or drop, but my hope is that by covering players who have actually been added or dropped recently in one of my leagues, the information may be more pertinent to readers who, like me, find waiver wire articles don't cover enough of the middle ground.

Examining the waiver wire

• Jorge Julio RP, Bal: Julio is an interesting pick for anyone who has a roster spot they are willing to use for a possible closer-in-waiting. Julio has strong enough numbers that he is likely already gone in leagues that focus on middle relievers. But if it's a future closer you're interested in, Julio may be a decent option for you, as there is some speculation he could be traded to one of the many major league clubs who need a closer. Baltimore, it seems, would like an outfielder. For now though, he's a great fantasy setup man for folks who need K's, but he has no immediate prospect of save opportunities.
  My take: Leave him on the waiver wire and the minute you find out he's actually being traded, pounce.
• Joe Mays SP, Min: I flip flop between thinking this guy deserves a roster spot and being fed up with him. The facts are simple: he was once a terrific option before his surgery, and he now looks mediocre. If you can deal with an ERA around 4.00 he could be a candidate to get you some wins. He has a very low K/IP ratio though and appears, perhaps, to have some stamina issues, as I have noticed he tends to pitch quite well until the late 5th or early 6th, when all hell sometimes breaks loose. I waived him a few weeks ago, but he went a full 9 innings his last time out and hasn't issued a walk in his last 15 innings.
  My take: Mays makes a decent pickup if you are desperate to find a capable injury backup for your rotation and can handle his current performance level. Otherwise, leave him be and take a flier on him if it he continues pitching well a little later into games. If so, he should be a good source of wins.


• Mike Gonzalez RP, Bal: Gonzalez earned a save on Saturday, but there's no indication the pirates intend to make him their everyday closer. He only faced one batter to get Mesa out of a jam. He's now back on the waiver wire in my league.
  My take: Whenever a closer such as Jose Mesa is struggling and someone else picks up a save, the opportunist deserves watching. Do just that: watch him for signs that he may get the job, but leave him on the wire for now.


• Luis Matos OF, Bal: Matos is a very capable fantasy backup and borderline starter in all formats when healthy. However, he appears to be about three weeks from returning. When he's hot he can be a good source of average and steals.
  My take: If you have a deep bench or a vacant DL slot, he's worth a grab, but otherwise give him a look three or four weeks from now.


• Jose Valverde RP, Ari: All indications are that in spite of his talent Valverde will continue to serve as a setup man in Arizona. If temporary closer Brian Bruney falters, Valverde will be worthy of a short term addition to fantasy rosters until Brandon Lyon returns in a couple weeks.
  My take: Valverde will not likely see more than a handful of save opportunities this season.


• Tim Stauffer SP, SD: Stauffer is young and unproven, but he has looked pretty decent in his first two starts. It's unclear whether he can keep up the good work, but if he does, one would have to think the Padres will consider keeping him on.
  My take: He may be worth a look and could potentially deliver an ERA under 4.00.


• Kazuo Matsui 2B/SS, NY(n): Matsui is currently riding a five game hit streak. He has three runs and four RBI over that stretch. He was not in Sunday's lineup, but is not expected to miss much time.
  My take: Don't expect those RBI to continue, but he is a decent bet to raise his batting average 30 points or so (it's currently at .246). If he does, he should be a decent source of runs when he is hitting well.


• Kenny Lofton OF, Phi: Lofton appears to be back, and should hit in the number two spot for Philadelphia on most nights. Lofton has been a bit of an enigma for fantasy owners in his old age. When he's hot, he's generally worth starting.
  My take: Kenny is a decent bench option for fantasy leaguers as he is the kind of guy you can spot start when he's hot or if your regular starter is sitting for some reason.


• Bill Mueller 3B/2B, Bos: Mueller has been somewhat hot of late. This shouldn't be too surprising since on May 10 his batting average was a full 55 points below his career average. That said, he still hasn't been too productive in spite of his recent resurgence. He only has 4 runs and 4 RBI in his last 10 games.
  My take: He's an able fantasy backup if his average keeps improving.


• Juan Rivera OF, LAA: Rivera will be used as Vlad Guerrero's everyday backup for the next several weeks. He's unproven, and won't be of use for very long.
  My take: Maybe this makes me ignorant, but I don't see much value here. If he gets hot maybe he's worth a short term look?


• Jermaine Dye OF, Chi(a): Dye is swinging a red hot bat with hits in 9 of his last 10 games, including homers in each of the last three.
  My take: You knew he wasn't going to hit .230 this season, right? Dye is an excellent pickup. He's not a superstar by any means, but this is exactly the kind of production you hope to find on the wire at this point in the season. Play him when he's hot. Sit him when he's cold.


• Todd Walker 2B, Chi(n): Walker should be returning to the Cubbies next week if everything goes well. He was dropped in many leagues due to his injury earlier this season and may be available.
  My take: If he's available and you need 2B help, now is the time to grab him, not after he comes back (because by then someone else will have grabbed him).


• John Lackey SP, LAA: Lackey has always been far more talented than he has been good. But in his past six starts he has looked quite fine. He has not given up more than 3 runs in any of those starts and has three wins to show for it. His last start? 10 K's and 1 run in 6.1 innings.
  My take: This is exactly the kind of guy I comb waiver wires for. Sadly, I was beat to the punch by literally three minutes or so in our league. I was mildly upset. There's no guarantee whatsoever that Lackey can continue to pitch this well, but you will want to take a chance on him if he's available for free.

Well folks, there's plenty more to cover, but I do this shit fo' free and it's now well past 5:00 AM. So I'm putting a stamp on this bad boy and mailing it in. Let me know if folks find this type of stuff helpful and I'll consider doing more articles like this one. If not, then fuck you, because I would have rather been sleeping!

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-- Written by Xach on May 23, 2005