Fantasy MLB trade analysis

Written by Xach on April 29, 2005

Good morning everyone. And by "good" I mean "filled with hate." Yep, that's right. It's crawling up on 10:00 AM and none of the so-called roto experts trolling these apathetic waters have seen fit to write a morning article. So this, dear readers, is where I step in and write something off the top of my head. Something filled with so much contempt for my fellow Rotogods that this will certainly not be called a hate free Friday. No, far from.

Anti climactic trades
In the wide world of fantasy sports, is there anything more annoying than trading for a bunch of players and having them all sit on the bench the first day you get them? I think not! Yours Truly just consummated a trade that netted me, among other players, Todd Helton and Jim Edmonds. The day the trade cleared (yesterday) I was to have Helton in a doubleheader at Coors field and Jim Edmonds at home against the very dominable Brewers. Instead I was treated to a frickin double rain out in Colorado and a bench riding Jim Edmonds. What the fuck?! What the fuckity fuck ineed.

Trades, trades, wonderful trades. Is there anything better than making a trade and getting new players? I think not. Especially when your team is sucking the amount of ass that my team has been sucking in the early goings. The only thing I like more than trades, however, is shoving owners' faces in a giant pile of feces after they make a dumb trade. Which brings me around to the truly hate filled portion of today's Late-Morning Offering.

See, there's been some decent trading action the past couple days in the Rotogods baseball league. So I thought I would divulge these trades so that our beloved readers can see for themselves a) the types of deals that have been going down and b) what complete idiots some supposed roto experts are. Let's discuss!

Hate Filled Friday Rotogods.com Trade Analysis

April 15
Junky gives: Sammy Sosa
TiVo gives: JD Drew

At the time of this trade, JD drew was in an 0-25 slump. Sammy, on the other hand, was looking pretty decent with an average around the .285 mark, if I recall correctly (and I'm not going to lookup the exact figures as of trade time). This trade says a lot about the relative values of these two players. Junky sells high on Sammy Sosa to buy low on JD Drew. At the out set this looks like an Even Steven kinda deal. But when you consider that Junky was willing to sell high on Sammy to get Drew at his likely season-low value, one has to consider that perhaps TiVo could have gotten more for JD Drew if he had waited for him to go on a tear.


Since the trade
Sammy Sosa: 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 K, .292 BA
JD Drew: 8 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 6 K, .390 BA

Conclusions
Sammy's career has been trending downwards for several consecutive seasons now. After a career year last season, you gotta believe that so long as Drew can stay healthy he'll put up at least equal power numbers to Sammy and likely a better batting average. Bottom line: This trade was "fair," but so far Junky looks wise and TiVo looks like a fat idiot whose team is in last place. So solly!

April 19
Junky gives: Jason Bay
Beagle gives: Coco Crisp

This trade actually looks pretty fair to me, but if I had to weigh in on one aide or the other, I'd say Beagle netted the player with more upside. Bay is young and had a very nice coming out party last season for Pittsburgh. He's worth a look in mixed leagues for power numbers most definitely. However, in Rotogods.com roto format, we do count K's as a category for hitters. And Bay gets more K's than the rest of his numbers may justify. Crisp, on the other hand, will do a little of everything and a lot of nothing, but Junky gets some speed and unloads some K's.


Conclusions
Meh. This trade is boring. I was bored just now writing about it, so I stopped.

April 26
Beagle gives: Brady Clark
Ricky gives: Steve Finley

Let's face it. Neither of these two players is a fantasy gem. In fact, either one of them could get waived and no owner would use his waiver priority to claim them. Steve Finley is exactly 897 years old, and Brady Clark is exactly not very productive.


Conclusions
In spite of all else, at least Clark has come out of the gates swinging a relatively hot bat ("hot" for him being a relatively meaningless term). On account of the fact that he's at least putting up better numbers than Finley in the early goings, and on account of the fact that he's exactly 865 years younger than Finley, I have to give the edge in this trade to Ricky. But saying Ricky got the edge in this one is like saying the Devil Rays get the edge when playing the Blue Jays. Someone find these guys a pot to piss in.

April 26
Junky gives: Carl Everett
Beagle gives: Orlando Hernandez

Everett and Hernandez are very similar players in terms of fantasy value. Each of them is capable of putting terrific numbers on the board and neither one seems capable of doing so for longer than a month at a time. Insofar as Everett has come out of the gates guns a blazing to the tuine of 19 RBI in 21 games, I don't see the value in trading him for Hernadez, who so far looks like his usual mediocre self. In my extremely humble opinion, I think Everett's only value lies in riding out his hot streaks or else in finding someone with so long a memory that they're willing to accept that Everett has taken a time machine back to 2000, which is the last time he put together a full good season.


Conclusions
I would have just held Everett and played him when hot. El Duque is relatively valueless at the moment. Long term, however, these two players do have similar value. But you gotta ride them when hot, not ditch them. Otherwise they might as well be on the waiver wire. Just one more instance where Junky is exposed as a complete moron. You guys are retarded! GOSH!!

April 28
Xach gives: Jason Schmidt, Keith Foulke, Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Matt Lawton, Chad Tracy
Worm gives: Jim Edmonds, Todd Helton, Eric Gagne (DL), Yhency Brazobán, Mike MacDougal

Tracy and MacDougal both get waived immediately. Why either player was in the trade to begin with is therefore beyond me, but since I proposed the trade when I was drunk, that may have something to do with it. Worm pays a very high price for Jason Schmidt and Keith Foulke. However, Worm has let it be known that he has very serious concerns as to whether Gagne can be effective when he returns, given the fact that he has not just one but two injuries to fight (knee and elbow). Worm also claims to have the inside 411 on a chronic Jim Edmonds shoulder issue that will see him retire after the season.


Conclusions
Assuming Worm is justified in his concerns, this trade looks favorable for him. I'm personally not buying any of that crap until I see it, in which case I will be the Herb. For now, though, I feel pretty cool about this trade. (Hands Worm copy of Chinese newspaper). As a side note here, I should say it's generally not a good idea to dis your own trading partners, but I didn't feel I could get away with writing a trade analysis article and conveniently pussyfoot my way around this deal. This of course is another way of saying I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that Worm got the better of me in this deal. I will have to be more guarded when dealing with Worm in the future.

April 28
Junky gives: Orlando Hernandez
Timberlake gives: Bill Mueller

Find me someone who cares about this trade.


Conclusions
Junky turns Everett into Hernandez and then turns Hernandez into Mueller. And ... no one cares.

April 29
Ricky gives: Lyle Overbay, Magglio Ordonez (DL), Randy Johnson, Odalis Perez
Timberlake gives: Mark Teixeira, Oliver Perez, Jaret Wright

This is an intriguing deal. Like many owners, Timberlake seems to have soured on Teixeira and Perez, both of whom got off to slow starts. There's no question that this deal should at least net Timberlake some wins. The real value for Timberlake, however, will depend upon Magglio's ability to return from his current hernia and produce this season. And since Magglio looks unlikely to play baseball within the next three months, I don't like this deal for Timberlake one bit. No siree Bob!


Conclusions
Randy for Teixeira would seem to be an even enough swap, but seeing as this is a keeper league, one has to think Tex has higher value at least for the long term. But even if we consider the two even, which seems fair enough to me, that means Timberlake is trading Ollie Perez for Odalis Perez. Again, in the short term, this should get him some wins, but in the long term, I don't see how he recoups his value. The good news for everyone not involved in this trade is that Ricky's team still sucks either way.

And now, congratulations to me. I have finished this Late-Morning Offering and can officially feel cool about myself. If you see any Rotogods other than myself on the message boards today, don't forget to tell them what non-writing, useless piles of dog shit they are.

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-- Written by Xach on April 29, 2005