Bracketology 101 Continued

Written by Dr Furious on March 17, 2005

Congratulations are in order for the Oakland Golden Grizzlies. You have just earned the right to get smoked by UNC in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Golden Grizzlies can take solace in the fact that there are about 281 other Division I teams that want to be them right now. Good job guys. Furious is now ready to drop knowledge like an influenza patient drops deuces. Probably not the image you were expecting, but an accurate portrayal of the situation. Stuff keeps coming out and you have little control over what happens. So let’s get the proceedings proceeding this fine morning, as the Madness inches closer and closer. You can look forward to bracketology that is a little more in-depth. I will highlight four teams from each region, each representing a different conference. I will analyze each teams strengths and weaknesses, and let you know how far I have them advancing. My Final Four picks will be included, so the world (our five loyal readers) will be able to see how wrong I was at the conclusion of the Tournament. Since I love the name so much, I will start with Albuquerque

Region: Albuquerque
Team: Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)

I should probably feature a team that I know a little more about, but that would be too easy. I like the Bulldog’s chances in this region. Adam Morrison, the 6-8 sophomore who leads the team in scoring, is the key to success for the Zags. The team goes as far as he can take them. Ronny Turiaf (probably my favorite collegiate player—if I could play like anyone in the NCAA, it would be this guy) is a great low-post option. Turiaf, the WCC player of the year, brings toughness and hard-nosed play to the table. He will be the recipient of double-teams for most of the tourney. Derek Raivio, the sophomore point guard, has done a great job replacing Blake Stepp. Gonzaga should find themselves in the Sweet 16, where they could face Wake Forest. I have the Zags losing to Wake, but would not argue with anyone who pencils them in for a trip to the Elite Eight.

Strengths: Interior Offense and Defense
The ‘Zags have a rough and rugged front line, with Turiaf and J.P. Batista. Turiaf is the teams second leading scorer behind Morrison and the senior’s polished game on the blocks will forces teams to double. Doubling down on Turiaf should free up Raivio for open looks from three, where the guard is shooting a lethal 48 percent (.478 to be exact). The addition of Batista to the starting frontline, opposite of Turiaf, gave the interior defense a lift. Erroll Knight can lock up any opposing guard, as his WCC Defender of the Year award indicates.

Weaknesses: Depth
The seven-man rotation is a concern for the Bulldogs, especially if the team gets into early foul trouble. The short rotation may be more of an issue as the Tournament progresses, when the opposition usually becomes tougher and more talented. The NCAA Tournament is not when you want to deal with inexperienced players getting burn because of foul trouble.

Region: Chicago
Team: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12)

Many experts are high on the Cowboys to come out of the Chicago (Midwest) bracket for good reason. Oklahoma State comes into the tourney hot, wrapping up a Big 12 Conference Championship, beating Kansas and Texas Tech in the process. They would have a 5-0 record in their last five games if not for a one-point loss to Texas. A win over Texas and the Cowboys are probably a one seed. Oklahoma State is one of the most experienced teams in the county, and the tandem of Lucas and Graham is one of the best inside/outside combinations in the country. I have Oklahoma State losing to Arizona in the Regionals, as the size eventually catches up with the Cowboys. That and Salim Stoudamire is a Beast!!!

Strengths: Experience
One thing you cannot teach is experience. As previously stated, the Cowboys are chocked full of NCAA veterans. Four of the five starters are seniors, and there are a total of only four underclassmen on the entire roster. That is a ton of experience, which will serve the Cowboys well, especially as the games get closer and closer as the Tournament progresses.

Weaknesses: Size
Another thing you can’t teach is size, and Oklahoma State does not have a lot of it. I like Ivan McFarlin a lot, but his 6-8 stature does leave him towering above most of the competition. The Cowboys should be fine in the first two rounds, but they will face a frontline that dwarfs theirs eventually (possibly Arizona), thus hurting their chances down the stretch.

Region: Syracuse
Team: Villanova Wildcats (Big East)

Well we have to get some analysis on at least one team from the Big East. I was having a conversation with VK, a friend of mine, and we discussed how his father was a spectator at number ‘Nova games and watched the team come together. This team has definitely come together and proven that they can beat anyone in the nation (anyone remember that this team thumped Kansas at home and were one point away from beating BC twice). They were arguably the hottest team in the conference at the end of the regular season. Like Illinois, Villanova employs a trio in the backcourt of their starting five. Nardi is solid at the point, while Ray and Foye (1 and 3 in respect to team scoring) can pull from anywhere on the court. Sumpter, the versatile small forward, is a tough matchup for whoever may be lucky enough to guard him. I have the Wildcats in a Big East Regional Final, where they lose to UConn. Villanova is the deal people

Strengths: Backcourt
I think I have said enough on the subject, but I can squeeze out a little more. If the Illini were not so damn good, the three-guard lineup of Villanova might be the most heralded in the land. Nardi takes care of the ball, with an assist/turnover ratio of 2/1. Allan Ray can hit from any spot on the floor (he shot 40 percent from three), and Foye has been taking over games lately (scoring 20 or more in four of the last six). The Villanova backcourt is really, really good.

Weaknesses: Size and Outside shooting
Villanova does not have a lot of size, and were probably forced to run the three-guard lineup out of necessity. Frazier is the only legitimate big man on the squad. Frazier is the defensive presence down low, and the Wildcats will suffer if he gets into foul trouble early. Villanova also struggles when their guards are not shooting well. Guard play works both ways in this instance, since the trio is such a large part of the offense. If the long-range shots do not fall, Sumpter can be contained and this team is in trouble.

Region: Austin
Team: Kentucky Wildcats (South East Conference)

Were going back-to-back with Wildcats right now. Kentucky is one of the more intriguing two seeds, and, once again, I am down on them this year. I’ll throw it out there early; I have the Wildcats penciled in for a second round loss to Iowa. There are not too many people as talented as Azubuike (almost as catchy as Saluki—do you find yourself repeating Azubuike constantly or is it just me?) in the nation. Chuck Hayes is probably the toughest player in the country and the Wildcats are 103-22 in the senior’s four years of service. That said, the rest of the roster does not excite me at all, and they are really young to boot. Rondo has gotten his act together at the point, but he’s going to have to play like a senior for the Wildcats to advance far in the Tournament. I do not see that happening, and a second straight defeat to Florida is not a promising sign.

Strengths: Defense and Depth
Plenty of defense on the Kentucky squad (anchored by SEC Defender of the Year Chuck Hayes). The aggressive man-to-man style is a trademark for the Wildcats and will come in handy during the tourney. Kentucky is also very deep, as ten players averaged double digits in minutes played.

Weaknesses: Experience and the Needed “Sparks”
The Wildcats are pretty young (five out of ten in the rotation are Freshmen and Sophomores), with Hayes the only starting senior. While Kentucky has survived with this rotation so far, things change in the Tournament. In addition to youth, Sparks will have to show up big in each game. The transfer is the second scoring option on the team, and has been up to the task thus far. The Wildcats go as far as he takes them, and I have serious doubts on whether Sparks can fuel the fire.

Without further ado: Furious’ Final Four picks
I think this article is long enough, so this will be brief. I have Illinois out of Chicago, Georgia Tech out of Albuquerque, Michigan State out of Austin, and UConn out of Syracuse. I almost took Arizona over Illinois, but could not pull the trigger. I also really like Syracuse out of Austin, but everybody else does too so I had to back off. Now Furious is aware that he promised this article to you yesterday, but it is still up before the Tournament. So…get your brackets ready and let the games begin.

-- Written by Dr Furious on March 17, 2005