Bracketology 101: Rotogod Style

Written by Dr Furious on March 15, 2005

I feel like dancing! Ok not really, but maybe after a few beers. It’s mid-March people, and one of the best times to be a sports fan is now upon us. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you should be ashamed of yourself. A long season has concluded, the conference tournaments are history, and the field has been selected. Now the madness of March begins. The NCAA Division I-A tournament is here; win and move on, lose and pack up your shit for that long, lonely bus ride home. If you still do not have the slightest idea of what I am talking about, maybe you should not be here.

So I assume that most of you reading this are knowledgeable about the lingo affiliated with tourney talk, but I’ll break some things down for those who are not. Here are the following definitions for acronyms that you may or may not know.

R.P.I.: Ratings Percentage Index (also Ratings Power Index)
I refuse to bore you with how this is actually calculated, mainly because it brings in a whole new set of acronyms. All you need to know is that a higher RPI is more better. A lower RPI can leave your team RIP and in the NIT.

S.O.S.: Strength of Schedule
Easier to calculate that the aforementioned RPI, but also includes the same alphabet soup that goes into calculating the RPI. Again, the higher the number, the better a team resume looks. If you are not in a power conference, your SOS can be boosted by…

N.C.S: Non-Conference Schedule
Games played against teams outside the conference. It is a good way for teams in weak conferences (or in any conference for that matter) to bump up their RPI and SOS. A light NCS or a poor showing against teams outside the conference can hurt team resumes and lead to a lot less dancing.

C.S.: Conference Schedule
I think you can follow the logic for this one. The conference schedule used to be one of the most important factors in the tournament selection process. There is a developing trend over the recent years (by the selection committee) that lessens the importance of the CS.

Now that the definitions are out of the way, here is what you can look forward to. To exhibit my dedication, commitment, and excitement (feel free to substitute or add dorkdom to that list) for the tournament, this will be the first of two featured articles from yours truly. I will share some preliminary evaluations on the regions, a brief summary on some teams that I think will surprise some folks (I refuse to use the term “sleeper.” It is obsolete), some humorous observations (hopefully), and, of course, some hatred (especially since it is not Friday) about those who were chosen and those who will be featured in the Not Invited Tournament. So I hope you all enjoy and that you also realize that I do not have a fucking clue about what I’m talking about. At least I can admit it, and, hell, I’ll definitely make it sound good.

Initial Thoughts
Looking over the four regions, I found myself gravitating toward the Albuquerque Region. The first thing that came to mind was “Why the hell are they not calling this the West bracket? Who the hell wants to say Albuquerque all tournament long? Shit, I didn’t know how to spell Albuquerque until now.” What really attracted my attention is the talent level of all the teams in this bracket. Washington definitely did not get the free pass to the Final Four. If the Huskies get there, they will definitely have to earn it. I can see Pitt, Louisville, or Georgia Tech beating the one seed. While the Huskies will not have to play all three teams, they most likely will face one or possibly two of them. If Washington does advance to the Elite Eight, it can look forward to a possible matchup with Wake Forest or Gonzaga. This bracket is oozing with talent (shit, West Virginia or UCLA could do work), yet it ended up being the easiest bracket for me to complete. Go figure! Fuck the experts; this bracket is tougher than the Syracuse (East) bracket (albeit by a very small margin).

The weakest bracket looks to be the Chicago (Midwest) bracket. The only redeeming thing about this bracket is that if features the Salukis of Southern Illinois, definitely the coolest team name ever. I know we all know what a Saluki is, especially after Southern Illinois’ run to the Sweet 16 in 2002. I just like saying the word…SALUKI. Just repeat it forty times a day, and you will fall in love with it too. Back to the topic. It appears Illinois can book its tickets for Chicago, which is a short drive from Champaign. The toughest competition that the Illini could face would be the Iggles of Boston College, which has all the makings for a great game. The defensive-inclined Eagles could cause some problems for the Illini. The emergence of Augustine and the transition game of the one-man fast break, however, lead me to believe that Illinois would prevail if the two teams do face-off.

Putting “Sleepers” to Rest
Are any teams really sleepers these days? I think the term is a little outdated. The Ragin’ Cajuns (LA-Lafayette), Blazers (UAB), and aforementioned Salukis have demonstrated that they can step up and beat anyone. Gonzaga has transformed from a mid-major to a perennial powerhouse (Ronny Turiaf displays beastly characteristics). So sleepers really do not exist anymore as the college field is fairly even across the country. The question becomes which unheralded team will step up and beat people? The pundits seem to like Ohio’s chances over the Gators, but I disagree. Florida is fresh off beating Kentucky for the second time in two weeks and is the proud owners of an SEC tournament title. The Gators are hot and should dispatch Ohio. Furious likes Creighton over West Virginia in the first round. Also look for Iowa to do some work. The Hawkeyes have demonstrated an ability to take down some talented, tough teams (Louisville, Texas Tech, and Iowa State--granted these wins were with Pierre Pierce on the team) and had a good run in the Big Ten Tournament. I had them pegged for a first round loss, but I would not be surprised at all if they beat The ‘Nati and Kentucky.

Finally, some long awaited hatred
Maryland has nothing to complain about. If the Terps had not loss to Clemson (Seriously, Clemson?) three times, their dancing shoes would be strapped on. The high SOS did not save the Terrapins. Now, Notre Dame and Indiana have serious reasons to complain. I know what you all are thinking. “Notre Dame lost to a team (Rutgers) with a 2-14 conference record.” There are some high school basketball teams that could beat Rutgers. In all fairness to ND, it did play the hardest CS in the best conference in the nation and finished above .500 (9-7). In years past this would have gotten most teams into the tourney. For some reason, the selection committee did not feel that this was good enough this season. I, personally, think that this is more evidence of Big East hatred by the committee, and it came at the expense of Notre Dame. They should have been in, folks, bottom line.

Indiana also has a serious gripe. The Hoosiers put themselves behind the eight ball with those early season losses. That said, Indiana still had ten conference wins at the end of the season. Again, in the past, this would have all but assured the team a place in the tournament. Indiana certainly did not help itself by getting blown the fuck out by Minnesota, but ten conference wins is still ten conference wins. The Hoosiers have officially made history by being the first team with double digit conference wins that was not invited to the field of 64. Congratulations!

Alright folks, I hope you enjoyed what you have read thus far. The second half of the double feature will include my picks (which could be completely different tomorrow) and my predictions for the Final Four. My Big East bias is not a factor, as I only have one team from the conference in Saint Louis (no, not Syracuse). I hope everyone enjoys the play-in-game this evening. Go Oakland!

-- Written by Dr Furious on March 15, 2005