How to win your fantasy baseball league without watching a single game, Part One

Written by TiVo on March 10, 2005

How to win your fantasy baseball league without watching a single game

What’s crackin’, roto addicts? I’m TiVo, and I have to admit, I don’t watch baseball. I don’t even TiVo it. I catch a few innings here and there, and try to visit a few parks I’ve never been to before each summer, but I wouldn’t say I’m a diamond die-hard. I am a roto junkie though.

For me, baseball merely bridges the long gap between football and basketball. But the 162-game season rewards those who pay attention the way a marathon rewards stamina. So the question is, how can the casual baseball fan compete?

If you don’t have the attention span to follow 30 teams for an entire season, join the club. You’ll be behind the eight ball when up-and-coming studs like Oliver Perez or Joe Mauer finally reach their potential, but you can win your baseball league. In two parts, I’ll tell you how.

Part One
The genesis of this idea came after last season, when I finished DFL (dead fuckin' last) in a baseball league. This was a first for me. I had two cellar-dwelling teams, in fact, and four others that weren’t so hot. I’d won a baseball league before, and made the playoffs plenty of times, and here I was performing like a roto reject. The awful finishes made me look back at what I was doing wrong. I couldn’t blame it on injuries, or trades that didn’t work out. I just sucked. So I decided to make myself a list of lessons I had learned in the past, but didn’t apply last season.

That list, my friends, can serve as your guide to winning, especially if you don’t plan to park yourself in front of Jon Miller and Joe Morgan for a gripping Brewers-Pirates clash every Wednesday night. For the experienced fantasy owner, these tips may not be shocks to you, but having this list handy may keep you from slipping like I did last summer.

Here are 15 things to keep in mind as you challenge for first:

Good management beats extra knowledge
Don’t feel bad if some guy in your league knows the starting first baseman for the Class A Visalia Oaks. That sort of knowledge isn't going to help him beat you if he can’t run a roto team. With all the information at your fingertips in the internet age, if you manage your team the right way and catch a few breaks, you should have as good a chance to win as the biggest baseball geek in your league. But you have to pay extra close attention, because the things he knows off the top of his head you’ll be researching.

Learn your scoring system
The quickest way to throw away your season is to skip this vital step. Make sure you know your league scoring system, and what it rewards. Players that make the ESPN highlights a bunch aren’t always the best for your fantasy team.
In a 4x4 league, Adam Dunn and his 46 home runs, for example, would be a great pick. But in the Rotogods’ 7x5 baseball league, where strikeouts count against you, Dunn and his 195 Ks are avoided like the plague.

If you’re playing rotisserie, points or head-to-head with weekly categories counting as one, remember these differences as you attempt to build a team strong in all areas.

During the draft, zig when they zag
If there’s a run on pitching, keep an eye on which hitters people are passing over while they’re hurriedly snatching up the last good arms. Your fellow owners often draft a player that should have gone a few rounds later because they’re afraid to miss out during a run.

Remember, the draft is all about getting the most value for your team. Don’t reach to fill one position if there are significantly better players on the board elsewhere. Get as much as you can. You can always make trades later to balance your roster.

Don’t lock into the post-draft blockbuster
If you draft poorly or miss out on a position, don’t necessarily take the first offer that comes down the 'pike. You may be able to accomplish through waiver wire pick-ups and trades for lesser-known players what you could not on draft day.

Early season trading is often a crapshoot, since owners tend to project positive numbers for the players they drafted. You might be better off giving yourself a few regular-season weeks to see how your team jells, making small moves to fill the cracks. But whatever you do, make sure you don’t bankrupt yourself in one area just to shore up another.

Figure out who you can't live without, then draft or trade for him
If Alex Rodriguez is available via trade, go get him! You may have to give up several players you like to complete the deal, but those players are often replaceable, sometimes even on the wire. The superstars that do the work of two players are nearly impossible to come by.
Likewise, if there’s a shortage of 50-save or 250-strikeout pitchers, sometimes it’s worth selling out to give yourself a contributor that will allow you to use your other roster spots to focus elsewhere.

Take a look at last year’s numbers
In a roto league, find the number it takes to get a 12 (or the highest possible score) in each category. Then find the average. Keep these numbers in mind as you assemble your team during the draft. It’ll give you an idea of where you’re stong, and if you run those numbers for other teams, it’ll help you come up with appealing trades for them.

Last year’s numbers aren’t gospel by any means, as things change from season to season due to injury and increased/decreased roles and production, but these will give you a starting point.

Likewise, it's smart to take a look at the highs and averages per-player in each category and at each position. If the average first baseman hits 25 homers, and you expect 40 from yours, that‘s good. But even more important is those numbers relative to the board. Look for big drop-offs. For instance, if there are six players projected to steal 50 or more bases, and the seventh is projected to swipe 30, the six teams who end up with the 50-base stealers have an advantage. Everyone else has to mix and match to get the same production. So, especially in a keeper league, where the top producers in every category will likely be off the board already, take a look at what you can reasonably expect from the guys left on the board. If you don't think you can afford to mix and match, you may have to make an unpopular pick early to solidify a few categories. Your fellow owners might be laughing now, but they won't be when they start offering trades and scouring the waiver wire for guys who produce in the category you just sewed up.

I’ll bring you the final nine tips in Part Two.

-- Written by TiVo on March 10, 2005