Fantasy Baseball Preview 2005: Second Base

Written by The Fool on March 08, 2005

Today’s rankings come at you for two reasons: (1) The Fool needs a second baseman in his upcoming fantasy baseball draft, and (2) we’ve gone four days without a morning offering. El Amin? “Sick.” Ricky? “Forgot.”

But frankly, The Fool is much more worried about the second base situation than Elle’s illness or Rickie’s senility. They will live – my middle infield may not. We’re allowed to keep 14 players in my “college buddies” league, and I ended up protecting six pitchers, four outfielders, three corner infielders and Angel Berroa; I’m hoping for a rebound, needless to say.

So unless I’m overwhelmed by another player in the first or second round – after all, we needs a catcher too – The Fool is looking to snag a two-bagger. Unfortunately, after the two elite options, it’s a real roll of the dice.

Again, this is an unscientific look from The Fool’s point of view at second base. And we’re only looking at starters entering the season, so no Juan Urines and Michael Cuddyers need apply.

1. Alfonso Soriano, Texas Rangers
Sadly, there’s nowhere for this guy to go but down, but he’s still heads and shoulders better than anyone else at the position. Three years ago, he was a homer away from 40-40, and then was summarily exposed as a free-swinging strikeout machine in the playoffs. After the Yankees traded him to the Rangers for ARod, his numbers went down across the board in each of past two seasons. But his totals of 28 homers, 91 RBI and 18 stolen bases make him always elite and enviable. And, it’s worth noting his strikeout numbers have gone down in each of the last three seasons.

2. Jeff Kent, Los Angeles Dodgers
Another no-brainer selection. He’s older than most options at this position, but he’s shown no sign of slowing down over the last few years. His new ballpark may do the trick – he signed with the real L.A. in the offseason, quite a cavernous change from the cozy Minute Maid bandbox. And, aside from his motorcycle shenanigans a couple years ago, he’s been relatively injury free. Expect an average around .300, more than 100 RBI and more than 20 home runs – primo for this position – with a sweet porn ‘stache to boot.

3. Mark Loretta, San Diego Padres
A sign this position is out of whack – a guy who was unknown waiver wire fodder a couple years ago with the Brewers is now the “next-best thing” at second base behind Soriano and Kent. His homers, RBI and batting average have gone up in each of the last two years, especially that average – he batted .335 last season, good for third in the National League. Loretta also significantly cut his strikeouts. And that came in Petco Park, which put a hurting on most of its players’ numbers. Grab him if you can get him, but don’t reach too soon.

4. Jose Vidro, Washington Nationals
The Fool feels a little better about this hometown pick, but even the once-reliable Vidro comes with injury concerns. He was putting up career numbers last season before knee surgery sidelined him in August. He would have reached career highs in home runs and stolen bases, but other numbers have dropped as the Nats’ lineup has gotten worse; his runs scored, RBI and batting average have taken a hit over the last few years. But with his health back and an improved lineup around him, Vidro should return to form – if not better.

5. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
Ray Ray benefited from the Barry Bonds-beefed lineup as much as anyone, putting up some of the best leadoff numbers in the National League. And, that lineup is only better this season, so you should expect more from Durham if he can stay healthy; he has averaged only 115 games over the last two years. But the 17 home runs and 65 RBI last season show he can still produce better than most.

6. Marcus Giles, Atlanta Braves
Last year was hell for L’il Giles. His infant child died shortly after birth, and he broke his collarbone, which cost him two months. That’s why his numbers from last season look so miserable. But now he’s back, healthy and of seemingly sound mind, which bodes well for the Braves and your fantasy team, should you land him. There’s no reason why Giles, who is only 25, shouldn’t pound his way back into the 20-homer range with a robust batting average and a handful of stolen bases or better.

7. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
There’s a lot to like about Roberts heading into this season. The Orioles have improved their lineup (and not their pitching) for the second consecutive season, adding slugger Sammy Sosa to the mix with Javy Lopez, Miguel Tejada and Rafael Palmeiro. And, Roberts has the job to himself, as the other second baseman, Jerry Hairston Jr., was traded to the Cubs for Sosa. Roberts is a legitimate burner, snagging 52 bags over the last two seasons, and he cranked a league-leading 50 doubles last season. Now officially a full-timer, look for an even better season from the 27-year-old, with even more than the 107 runs he scored last year.

8. Bret Boone, Seattle Mariners
The Fool isn’t one to make unfounded allegations . . . but moving into a spacious ballpark and random drug testing probably happened at the wrong time of Bret Boone’s career. He still has one of the coolest bat flips this side of Ryan Klesko; they just don’t come as often as they did when he was muscled out of his mind and mashing 35 homers in 2003 or 37 in 2001. He’ll be 36 this year, and his numbers dropped significantly across the board last year: runs, RBI, stolen bases, walks and batting average. Needless to say, that’s not a good sign. The good news for him and his owners is that Seattle improved its lineup, adding a couple mashers in Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, so Boone should see better pitches and could score some more runs.

9. D’Angelo Jimenez, Cincinnati Reds
There was a time, when Jimenez and Soriano were coming up in the Yankees system, that many considered Jimenez to be the better prospect. Soriano arrived a little sooner and sparkled from the start; Jimenez has taken longer to develop, but he has turned into a solid if unspectacular performer. Spending a year in the same town for the first time in his career, Jimenez had his best season in 2004: 12 homers, 67 RBI, 76 runs scored and 13 stolen bases. If his teammates stay healthy and that Reds offense keeps clicking, his numbers will only get better.

10. Luis Castillo, Florida Marlins
His numbers are deceiving, as is his reputation. Castillo is known as a base-stealer, but even in his best seasons he got nabbed a lot – which in some more competitive leagues is a detriment. (For his career, Castillo has 271 stolen bases and has been caught 107 times, meaning he has netted 164 stolen bases. So over a 9-year major league career, that’s about 18 thefts a season. Not quite as good as you thought, huh?) The Fool has been burned by this before. Castillo’s average also took a hit last season, and he has stolen just 21 bases in back to back seasons. But, his game is seemingly still coming together – he is growing more patient at the plate, as his increased walk totals in each of the last three seasons attest. He’s worth a gamble if you need a batting average boost and some stolen bags, just don’t take him as early as you once would. Mind you, he’ll murder your team in a couple categories (homer runs and RBI), so make sure if you select Castillo that you’re covered elsewhere in your lineup.

The rest

11. Orlando Hudson, Toronto Blue Jays: On the cusp of being special if “O-Dog” can turn those monster streaks into consistent performance. Has speed and emerging power.

12. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: One of The Fool’s sleeper candidates for this season, with a full-time job in a nasty lineup.

13. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angles of Ahaheim: He’s holding this spot for Adam Kennedy, who tore up his knee and won’t be back until early June. Figgins, meanwhile, should post a high batting average and a lot of steals. Playing time when Kennedy returns will be the question.

14. Mark Bellhorn, Boston Red Sox: Finally had two great years in his last three, and has great pop for the position, but his batting average is still a stinker.

15. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox: The Sox gave him a two year deal for nearly $5 million, and they appear committed to playing him at second base. The Sox are also committed to running, so expect him to steal some bases as well as hit for average; power (24 homers last season) will be a plus. In eight years in Japan, Iguchi hit 149 homers and stole 159 bases.

16. Keith Ginter, Oakland Athletics: It’s a little too early to call this competition with Mark Ellis, but I can’t imagine Billy Beane brought Ginter in to sit the bench – especially with those 33 homers over the last two seasons.

17. Kaz Matsui, New York Mets: He and Jose Reyes swap positions this year. With a season in the States under his belt and a little more time on the field (he played only 114 games last year), 12 or more homers and 20 stolen bases aren’t out of reach.

18. Tony Womack, New York Yankees: Last year was a nice rebound season for Womack, who posted his best on-base and batting number of his career. Now he gets to try it in pinstripes.

19. Todd Walker, Chicago Cubs: The Fool is wary of ranking Walker this high because TW appears to enjoy the occasional injury, and Jerry Hairston Jr. came over in the Sosa deal. If Hairston sticks in the outfield, it’s a non-issue; Walker can provide plenty of pop.

20. Chris Burke, Houston Astros: None of the preseason reports glow for this rookie, though many scouts compare him favorably to Craig Biggio – who for years was an elite pick at the position. More than worth a flier, if for no other reason than getting some good team names out of it.

21. Ron Belliard, Cleveland Indians: Another player who had his best season a year after playing in Colorado. Weird.

22. Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers: Strange to say the least-known guy in the Tigers lineup is Infante, who cracked 16 homers last season at age 22.

23. Aaron Miles, Colorado Rockies: Five of his six home runs last season came against the Diamondbacks. So at least you would know when to start him.

24. Luis Rivas, Minnesota Twins: The coaches think Rivas is lazy and won’t hesitate to bench him. Unless you’re desperate for steals, you should take the same attitude.

25. Mark Grudzielanek, St. Louis Cardinals: This is his job unless he gets injured, and Grudzy will deliver a nice, around-.300 batting average – and little else.

26. Junior Spivey, Milwaukee Brewers: As good as Ernest was a couple years ago, when he was an All Star, he’s a placeholder for Ricky Weeks, whose arrival could happen anytime this year.

27. Roberto Alomar, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Another uncreative move by the Devil Rays. Since a fabulous All-Star season in 2001 with Cleveland, Alomar has been abysmal – and he’s notorious for playing even worse on bad teams. Of course, he probably won’t even realize he’s one of the reasons this team is bad, but oh well . . . the spitter’s only worth an inexpensive, late-round backup gamble.

28. Tony Graffanino, Kansas City Royals: Crappanino is slated to start, but he’s just a placeholder for 2004 Royals Minor League Player of the Year Ruben Gotay, and he’s injured and hasn’t played in the spring. Meanwhile, Gotay is knocking the cover off the ball in Arizona.

29. Jose Castillo / Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates: Castillo should start and Sanchez, a former overrated prospect with the Red Sox, should be the backup middle infielder, but this one is still pretty much up in the air. And you shouldn’t be too eager to have either of them in your lineup.

30. Craig Counsell, Arizona Diamondbacks: With a number of young players waiting in the wings, the Diamondbacks instead decided to go boring and crusty in its middle infield. Neither shortstop nor second base on this team is worth your time.

-- Written by The Fool on March 08, 2005