The Morning Offering -- Feb. 16, 2005

Written by Xach on February 16, 2005

Top of the morning to ya. With the fantasy baseball season only hours away, Xach brings you a slightly extended (but easy to parse God dammit!) Morning Offering with answers to frequently asked draft strategy questions. So guzzle that coffee down. It's roto time!

MLB to fantasy baseball fans: "Fuck you. We own this shit.""
Well, for upwards of 7.5 million people who play fantasy baseball every year it's almost roto time anyway. Thanks to Major League Baseball the fantasy world will have to wait until midnight tonight to start signing up for their leagues. In case you haven't heard yet, MLB.com has made a push to monopolize the fantasy world by signing an exclusive deal with the MLBPA. The deal is reportedly worth about $50 million. Thanks to restrictive licensing, many fantasy sports leagues will have to find new homes. My point in mentioning all this is not so much to report the news, as this information has been in the public sphere for about a week now. Instead I have a question: What the fuck does MLB think it's doing? Cash cow or not, this move only serves to alienate an already disgruntled fanbase. Rumor has it that Barry Bonds may not be available in non MLB.com leagues. I guess we'll have to wait until midnight tonight to put that rumor to rest, but in either case the point still stands: statistical data should be public information.

For those who want to debate the issue
Hop on our message boards and give us a holler. (Registration is free and takes only a minute. You can do so by clicking here.) We Rotogods won't pussyfoot around the issues or temper our feelings. Suffice to say, there's a law suit pending as CDM Fantasy Sports has filed suit against MLB. I hope MLB's fantasy monopoly goes down in flames, but whatever the outcome, one thing's for certain: Fantasy baseball players around the world will not forgive MLB if they in any way ruin the game.

Some baseball draft advice from the Xachmeister
As the fantasy season approaches, I've been lurking around other fantasy message boards. I've even been answering questions for people from time to time on other sites just to get a read on what kinds of information people feel they need. This has given me a chance to see a lot of the questions folks have been asking. So this morning I thought I'd do my own little response to frequently asked questions. If you have more detailed or situation-specific questions feel free to contact myself or one of the other Rotogods. For now, here are answers to my top two FAQ:

• How do I adjust my cheat sheets for head to head leagues? Many first or second time H2H competitors will draft for their H2H leagues using cheat sheets that have been devised for standard fantasy points or rotisserie leagues. Don't make this mistake. In H2H leagues the key is to win the most weekly matchups, not to have the best numbers by season's end. This means that you will want to focus on one of two different but equally successful draft strategies.
• H2H Strategy 1: The first strategy you might want to use is to focus as well as you can on players who tend to get hot right out of the gates. Look at statistical splits and move players who have two or three year trends of having hot Aprils or Mays up several notches in your cheat sheet. Take advantage of their hot starts and then trade them away in May or early June for players who tend to play more steadily down the stretch. I'd be interested to hear from anyone who has actually tried this strategy and followed through on it from start to finish. It requires much more diligence and in-season negotiation than the second strategy I'm about to offer, but I think it might be more of a clincher as well if you can really get out in front quickly.
• H2H Strategy 2: The second strategy I'm recommending is to focus on players who aren't known as streaky performers. Avoid them altogether. While Geoff Jenkins, for example, has had some very useful numbers at times in his career, he is also a notoriously streaky hitter. He will be among the best options for a week or two at a time and then go cold for a couple weeks before you hear from him again. You don't want to comprise your team of these players in H2H leagues. You'll end up with a .500 team that teases you with huge numbers from time to time and never puts together a month long winnng streak. Focus instead on the Steady Eddies of the baseball world even if they have lower ceilings. In this respect, you'll find that Jeff Kent is significantly more valuable in H2H than, say, Michael Young.
• If my draft is half over and my team is unbalanced, am I fucked? Of course we all know the best way to draft is to have a balanced attack and stick to it. But sometimes the players you want don't fall your way and you decide to make "value" picks instead. Or worse yet, panic sets in and you sincerely fuck up a few picks. Do not fear. Your draft is not over. There are several key factors to handling this situation:
1. Do not panic. And by no means should you ever let on that you messed up on a given pick. Remain calm and confident. Unless the guy you picked up is seriously injured or has announced his retirement, chances are someone will be willing to make a trade with you later. If you must, for pride's sake, admit in the chat room that you messed up the pick, do yourself a big favor and still remain calm. Nothing is fucked here dude, nothing is fucked.
2. Pick for value instead of balance. Know your oponents and do your best to pick the players you think they will want in trade later. For example, you may have tons of strikeouts, but Oliver Perez is still available. Draft him. Everyone's on his nuts. You will be able to trade him after the draft for the stolen bases threat, closer or slugger you need. The biggest mistake you can make in this situation is to draft a sub par stolen bases threat three rounds too early simply because you need the steals. You will have landed yourself a player who you could have had later (and who probably is not an adequate solution to your balance problem anyway) while diminishing the overall value of your team. Stay focused and grab the players with the most hype. Immediately after the draft, trade them for what you need.
3. Exploit the rules. Does your team have generic P slots for pitchers and a deep bench? Great! This can work in your favor. If you missed out on the pitching numbers you need, grab the most talented middle relievers you can find who are the most likely to see major innings. Target middle relievers on teams with shaky starters and strong lineups. These guys will get you wins and can be rotated daily in your generic P slots. This is just one example of how rules can be exploited if you fuck up the beginning of your draft. Evaluate your league's settings prior to the draft and make sure you've isolated the loopholes. Every league has some.

More baseball advice from the Rotogods
To all of us here at Rotogods.com, true gems of fantasy advice are not to be taken lightly. In addition to running this site we also compete against eachother quite competively. Fuck, we've been known to send eachother threatening fight emails over that shit sometimes. Our 12 team keeper league is entering its 5th year this season. We don't want to tip eachother off as to our respective draft strategies, but mindful of our readership as we are, we will get our draft done early. When that happens, we'll pass all our views along promptly. Look forward to 7x5 and 5x5 mock drafts as well as all the draft advice we can muster.

In the meantime you can use our message boards to discuss any draft or trade questions you may have with the rest of the fantasy sports community at large. In addition, we will do our best to private message you our own answers to your questions. So go ahead and register for our boards. It's free and easy. Each one of us is likely to have a variety of helpful thoughts for you and we're around all day long. We're happy to chat with beginners and experts alike.

That's all for now folks. Instead of humor I bring you some nuggets with which to start your baseball season. With any luck, at the stroke of midnight tonight we'll be playing ball instead of writing nasty letters to MLB thanking them for ruining our seasons. :P

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For comments, suggestions, or whatever the fuck, you can send Xach an E-mail or post a comment below.

-- Written by Xach on February 16, 2005