The Morning Offering - Feb. 4, 2005

Written by Worm on February 04, 2005

It's Friday morning. Do you know where your Super Bowl party is?

Worm's Super Bowl Pick
Of all the Rotogods, I may be the least qualified to give serious analysis on the upcoming Big Game. But that never stopped a web columnist before! At least I can lend an unbiased view. From what I have seen of these two teams, I expect Sunday's game to be predominantly defensive-oriented. Shocking revelation! Seriously, though, both teams certainly have capable offenses, or else they wouldn't be where they are now. So the question becomes, which offense can break through the mutually tight D's? I foresee most of the offense in the game coming over just one or two quarters, and I expect it to come from the Patriots. When that unit clicks, it's almost machine-like, and they will need that level of precision to break through in what is otherwise likely to be a defensive, deadlocked battle. No slight meant to the Eagles offense, which has tools of its own, but I have to pick New England to win this one by a touchdown or two.

Fantasy Baseball Prep
Generally, the first thing you want to do when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft/auction is to make sure you don't get embarassed. For some of you, this may mean quitting the sport altogether. Primarily, though, this means checking to see which players have had offseason surgery, and which players have switched teams into unfavorable ballpark or lineup situations. (For example, Ugueth Urbina now finds himself in the same bullpen as Troy Percival, so you shouldn't be picking him as your first or second closer. As an aside, I believe his mother is still missing, which must be weighing on him tremendously. My heart goes out to you, Ugie. I pray that she is well.)

Beyond this basic groundwork, it's also useful to think about where different players are in their careers. To this end, I sometimes like to play around with one of the many features at Baseball-Reference, one of my favorite sources for baseball stats. On its player pages, the site tabulates what it calls "Similarity Scores," which basically tell you which other players throughout Major League history have had the most similar careers, up to the same age as the player in question. One eye-opening example is the case of Richard Hidalgo. Through the age of 29, the most similar player to Hidalgo in ML history is Larry Walker. And what did Walker do at the age of 30 (the age Hidalgo will be this season)?

143 R, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 33 SB, .366 AVG

Wow. Just wow. Will Hidalgo put up those numbers this season? No, he won't. But it's fun to dream. And it's also a fun little tool to play around with. At the very least, it can teach you a lesson about the volatility of starting pitching.

That's all for now. Get on with your Friday, and then on to the weekend! Before you go, though, you may want to vote in this poll, here. It's easy and painless, I promise!

-- Written by Worm on February 04, 2005