The Morning Offering - Jan. 31, 2005

Written by Xach on January 31, 2005

Well, it's Monday morning now and I hope all you football fans managed to while away the weekend without getting too annoyed with the media's annual Pre-Super Bowl Fluff Piece Parade. Not that I fault the media for milking an extra week's suspense out of the year's most popular sporting event, but I can only digest so much Super Bowl related drivel before tuning out. With that in mind, I'm bucking the trend this morning to bring you some thoughts from elsewhere in the sports spectrum.

Sammy Sosa could regain some of his fantasy value
The long rumored deal sending Sosa to Baltimore for Jerry Hairston Jr. and prospects is now a reality needing only the Commissioner's stamp of approval. Along with the rumored deal, Sammy has now endured a year's worth of bad press. Chicago fans seem all too happy to see him go and frankly I can't blame them. The offensive lineup surrounding Sammy has not changed so much in terms of providing him protection; both the Cubs and the Orioles have very strong lineups. Similarly, the new ballpark is more spacious than Wrigley, but it's still a better than average hitter's park. Even though I see no huge change in the on-the-field factors surrounding Sosa, I'm expecting increased fantasy production for several reasons:

• Pride: Sammy used to be the lovable underdog in the race for the home run record. He was, arguably, a more embraceable ambassador for baseball than Mark McGwire at the time. The wide smiled Dominican has now suffered several long seasons of bad press from the corked bat incident of 2003 to his inability to get along with his General Managers to his decision to leave several minutes into the last game of the 2004 season. Now in Baltimore, Sammy will be eager to please a new stadium full of fans and ready to re-establish his legacy as one of the game's most prolific homerun hitters. Sure, he could turn into another Griffey Jr., but after he got dropped to 6th in last year's batting order it seemed clear Sammy wants some fucking respect. I think he will do everything in his power to go get it.
• Health: While a decline in batting average has been apparent over the past few seasons, we've seen these kinds of averages from Sammy before. Heck, he batted .251 in 1997 only to hit .308 in 1998, not to mention a career high 66 homers. The greatest limiting factor in Sammy's fantasy production these past three seasons has been a steady decrease in games played. Much of the time it seemed he was dragging his feet on injuries that appeared relatively minor. I think a happier Sosa with something to prove has to be considered a good bet to play 150 games. I'm not saying he definitely will, but health concerns and bad press will deflate his value on draft day, making him a good bargain. I'm not saying he will be the 66 homer Sammy of old, but I am saying he will be worth more at season's end than on draft day.
• Incentive: If there's one thing we know about declining superstars, it's that they expect to get paid. Sammy's smile alone used to sell enough Pepsi to keep the sponsors happy. His role in the homerun race helped negate a decade of waning fan interest in Major League Baseball. The Baltimore Sun is rumoring that the Orioles will seek a two year extension and my guess is Sammy will both want to justify both the extension and renew sponsorship interest. One thing's for sure: moves to Baltimore have shown favorably on the fantasy production of both Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez. I'm going out on a limb and penciling Sosa in for 45 homers, 110-plus RBI and a .275 average. He'll still strikeout a lot and he won't belt 60 homers, but he will put three seasons of declining numbers behind him.

Mike Piazza: Now legally not gay
Remember back in 2001 when a gay columnist said he'd been dating a professional baseball player in New York? Remember when everyone tried to guess who it was and no one didn't guess Piazza? Heck, Piazza even held a press conference in 2002 to officially announce he wasn't gay. Well, Piazza got married this past weekend to former Playboy Playmate and Baywatch star Alicia Rickter. "Who's the gay now, bitch," Piazza screamed after he kissed the bride. Or at least it'd be a lot funnier if he did.

Hot NBA pickup
Primoz Brezec has put together a nice little streak of games. He did this earlier in the season too and the production eventually went south. I have no faith in him to keep it up long term, but if you believe in riding out a hot streak, his 15 points and 10 rebounds per game could keep up a little while longer.

NBA player to drop
Jason Hart's monthly value increase has come and gone. Brevin Knight returned to action Sunday and Hart's numbers dropped appreciably. Hart still started the game, but a return to the bench seems inevitable. Hopefully you got some nice production out of him last week, but he should be dropped now in most leagues.

Frustrating NBA player
Just when it seems Samuel Dalembert has played his way out of Jim O'Brien's doghouse it also seems he has figured out how to pickup fouls. Sammy collected 5 fouls in only 18 minutes yesterday, severely crippling his playing time. My advice is to stick with Sammy, as he should still put up the numbers owners have been looking for with increased playing time. However, if you're writing a book and need to find a surly, frustrated NBA fantasy player, pencil Sammy's owner in for some interview time.

That's all I got this morning. You can now return to reading Super Bowl fluff pieces and making smores.

For comments, suggestions, or whatever the fuck, you can send Xach an E-mail or post a comment below.

-- Written by Xach on January 31, 2005