Assessing waiver wire gems

Written by Xach on January 19, 2005

Good morning. This is the first of what will become a daily feature here at rotogods.com. Every weekday morning one rotogod or another will bring you something to read with your coffee, donut or cereal flakes. And yes, you can print it out and read it on the crapper. This feature is bound to develop over time as each rotogod finds his daily groove. We sure as fuck hope you enjoys it.

Free agent gem or sack of shit?

We've all wondered this. Am I getting Esteban Loaiza 2003 or Josh Towers 2002? The answer is you don't know unless you try. Chances are at any point in time you have at least one roster spot that's more expendable than you think it is. For me that was, among other people, Maurice Williams this past November. One lesson I'm constantly having to relearn is that free agents are expendable. Having to constantly relearn this can be infuriating, so here's the straight dope on free agents as I see it. Was it a piece of shit when you found it? Well okay then. Until it proves itself otherwise, it's still a piece of shit; it just happens to be on your team. For rare occasions when I actually have my thinking cap on instead of simply having an unfounded hardon for one player or another, here are some strategies I employ when trying to figure out whether my waiver wire piece of shit actually stinks.

Consider the longview: Some players suck and are simply hot at the moment. A good example of this is Bruce Bowen. Since we're in NBA season he's a decent example. He won Player of the Week honors last week and was on fire from downtown. But he has never shown the ability to perform like that on any consistent level. Chances are, he's a fllash in the pan. Players like Eddie Griffin or Samuel Dalembert, however, are must-grab players if they get hot. They have always been regarded as talented, but may be available because of their situations. These are the guys who are most likely to produce after you get them. Sure, there are always exceptions, but these are the guys you want to target, as fantasy sports is all about securing the surest chance of production.

Target guys who aren't hot. . . yet: The easiest way to hit free agent paydirt is to grab a guy with solid production potential before he gets hot. In competitive leagues, trying to grab the already-hot hand is like trying to win a face off in the old west. The surest way to win is not to take all ten paces. If you find a tip that a team is making a favorable roster move, take a chance on the beneficiary of this move. I recently did this with Hedu Turkoglu and so far it's paying off. Cuttino Mobley got traded and I jumped on his backup even though it wasn't clear if he would get the starting job. The move might not pay off, but so far so good. I got him before he became productive and hit every owner's radar screen. Another way to target players who aren't hot yet is by watching the games. I'm, um, not so good at this one myself, but if you have the MLB season package and you see that a player with great tools is absolutely spanking the ball and just happens to be making outs anyway, you want to grab him up immediately. Chances are he's about to go on a streak.

Don't get frustrated: We've all been there. You grab a guy you think is about to get hot or has put up one or two good games only to see him flounder for the next two weeks. Meanwhile you see someone else you'd like to check out. Don't be afraid to cut bait and grab the guy you want. As Murphy's law would have it, the guy you dropped will get hot, someone else will take him and you will feel frustrated with your decision. Don't let yourself get frustrated. If you get frustrated, next time this happens you will be too hesitant to drop a shitty pickup when you really should. I was carrying dead weight earlier this basketball season in Samuel Dalembert and Mehmet Okur. Consequently I let myself miss out on other players I really should have either grabbed or kept on my roster. Do as I say, not as I do: drop these turds back in the bowl. Yeah, they'll get hot and you'll feel like an idiot, but you'll thank yourself later when you end up with a hot month of Kyle Korver instead. It's the free agent wire. It's supposed to be a merry go round.

Don't let the cat out of the bag: Are you watching the game? Is your friend watching the game? Do not under any circumstances share your free agent insight before you can make the grab. You will get burned. And your friend will not feel bad for you. Never fall for "just tell me who it is, I promise not to grab him." Trust me. Just never do this. I don't care if you've known little Jimmy for or lazy Davey since you were eight years old. You will have bought yourself a new pair of Bad Idea Jeans.

Find alternative sources of information: Last but not least, always look for new sources of information that fewer of your opponents are likely to have read that day. If you're getting all your hot tips from the Yahoo! fantasy sports home page or the front page of ESPN.com, your chance of grabbing the player you've just read about is one in however-many-owners-there-are-in-your-league. Even if you find shitty sources, they're worth an occasional glance. You never know when they'll throw you a bone a day before the well read fantasy journalists get to it. One thing I like to do is to occasionally read out of town sports pages. Thanks to the internet this is easy. Choose another city and read their paper one day. Chances are you'll learn something even if it isn't fantasy sports related. Heck, come here and read rotogods.com. No one else does!

That's all I got for now. This may be longer than the usual Morning Offering. It may even be more fantasy related than the usual morning offering. But even if we're just here telling fart jokes and making fun of Dan Shaughnessy's latest mailed-in Red Sox column, we hope you'll check in. Afterall, it's clear you already have nothing better to do.

For comments, suggestions, or whatever the fuck, you can send Xach an E-mail or post a comment below.

-- Written by Xach on January 19, 2005